According to a Ship&Bunker article, IHSMarkit sees the uptake of scrubbers continuing, which will support the ongoing use of HSFO in the post-2020 market.
Scrubber uptake
Last year’s mega-rush of scrubber orders may be over. But IHSMarkit are among those who see the uptake of scrubbers continuing, which will support the ongoing use of HSFO post-2020.
At the IBIA Caribbean Bunker Conference (ICBC), Debnil Chowdhury, Head of North American Refining, IHSMarkit told, “We believe there will be an uptake in scrubbers longer term.”
Comeback of HSFO demand
He added, the scrubber uptake shows that HSFO demand will slowly come back but not to the levels they were at prior to IMO 2020.
While some believe a third or more of current HSFO demand could be retained in 2020, IHSMarkit sees
- scrubbed HSFO at 5% of demand,
- non-compliance at 15%,
- VLSFOs at 30% of total bunker demand, and
- gasoil making up the remaining 50%.
Number of scrubber ready vessels
It is unclear exactly how many scrubber equipped vessels there will be come 2020. IHSMarkit puts its estimates close to those of other mainstream analysis at 2,000 to 2,200 come January 1, 2020, and 2,600-2,800 by year end.
Even less certain among market watchers is how this translates into ongoing HSFO demand.
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Source: Ship&Bunker
