- Traders are eyeing a bullish summer for oil, and all predictive caution has been thrown to the wind.
- With analysts in many ways catching the crypto bug and brushing those tried-and-true fundamentals under the rug.
- Fuals are boring. Sentiment is exciting, and spreads like wildfire on social media and among a new class of amateur traders.
- In other words, $100 oil is in vogue.
A recent news article published in the Oil Price states that $100 oil is in vogue.
Oil market bullish
Speaking to CNBC’s Trading Nation late last week, Piper Sandler’s Craig Johnson noted that the energy sector was on track for 40% gains–it’s best quarter ever–and he could “actually see a number that could be north of 100 in the next, say, six to … 12 months from here”.
Likewise, Laffer Tengler Investments’ Nancy Tengler says OPEC will keep production steady and we won’t see any supply increase until October, so “the price of oil can run pretty handily from here”. Laffler Tengler is calling $80 oil for the summer.
Even Bank of America has said oil prices could spike over $100 per barrel.
In vogue or not, $100 oil certainly is not the consensus view.
It’s still considered the mad view, even if the class of mad traders seems to be growing in size rather quickly.
What are the other factors that influence price?
There are a million other things weighing on prices at the moment, from the spectre of a deluge of Iranian oil back on the market, to a continued pandemic and–horror of all horrors–another COVID-19 surge if variants aren’t brought under control.
That’s all keeping international travel, and all important jet fuel, from recovering.
But it’s a mad world, and predictions have become a sloppy game.
That said, if you’re going to go mad, bet on $100 oil before $500,000 bitcoin, which has nothing except sentiment, sales pitches and thin air to support such a surge.
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Source: Oilprice
