- In 2024, US grain exports are expected to rise by 12%, primarily driven by increased maize shipments, with water levels in the Mississippi River facilitating transport.
- The US share of global grain exports has declined from 24% in 2021 to 18% in 2023 due to competition from Southern Hemisphere exporters, particularly Brazil and Argentina.
- China, the world’s largest grain importer, has moved to alternative grain suppliers outside the US, decreasing its share of imports from 37% in 2021 to 23% in 2023.
In 2024, the US grain export market is set for expansion, largely driven by maize exports and shifting global market trends. Although domestic factors remain positive, the sector faces obstacles from increased international competition and changing import preferences from key buyers such as China, reports BIMCO.
Future of Export Growth
US grain exports are projected to increase by 12% in 2024 from 2023 levels, due to an increase in maize shipments. In the first seven months of 2024, exports have already risen by 6% year-on-year and are expected to accelerate post-harvest in September, supported by normal water levels in the Mississippi River for efficient transportation to seaports.
Despite being the second-largest grain exporter worldwide, the US has seen its global export share decline from 24% in 2021 to 18% in 2023, largely due to competitive pricing from Southern Hemisphere exporters like Brazil and Argentina.
As the world’s largest grain importer, China has accounted for 23% of global grain shipments, and its reliance on US grain has decreased significantly. In 2021, 37% of China’s grain was sourced from the US, but this dropped to 23% last year. This shift has been driven not only by price considerations but also by China lifting restrictions on maize imports from Brazil and Argentina.
Challenges in Modern Shipping
A revival in US maize shipments could enhance global grain supply and benefit bulk carriers across various segments, including panamax, supramax, and handysize. However, potential gains in dry bulk demand may be limited due to sailing distance dynamics. Over the first half of 2024, US grain shipment routes have shifted towards closer markets like Mexico and Colombia, with a notable 19% year-on-year decline in exports to China.
Disruptions in the Panama Canal have initially increased sailing distances for shipments to East Asia, but as transit restrictions have eased, return to normal conditions is expected, which may mitigate some volume gains.
US grain exports are expected to rise in 2024, driven by favorable conditions and higher maize production. However, the competitive market and changing import trends from major buyers such as China will continue to play a crucial role in shaping trade dynamics.
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Source: BIMCO
