2019 Dry Bulk Orderbook Summary

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  • Post-Panamax sector and Panamax accounts for the highest order book to in-service vessels percentage, at 24% and 2% respectively.
  • Handysize vessels stand at 21% with an average age of 17 years. The vessels in service to order book ratio for the Capes is 17% and for the supramaxes at 10%.
  • Around 45m dwt vessels are due to enter the dry bulk fleet. The largest fleet is the Supramax fleet with over 2800 vessels trading and approximately 296 ships on order.
  • Trade tensions between the US and China along with the slowdown in the global economy have a negative effect on the dry bulk market.

In terms of the number of ships, the order book to fleet ratio currently stands at 12% in terms of a number of vessels and in terms of dwt this figure rises to 13%, says an article published in Alibra Shipping

Post-Panamax claims top spot

If we break this down further to take in to account each individual sector of the dry bulk fleet, the Post Panamax sector accounts for the highest order book to in-service vessels percentage, at 24% and in contrast the percentage for the Panamax fleet is just 2%, implying a trend towards the larger end of the scale for Panamax and Post Panamax new buildings.

This is followed by 21% for the handy, which in this instance is indicative of the renewal of an aging sector with an average age of 17 years. The vessels in service to order book ratio for the Capes is 17% and for the supramaxes, the percentage stands at 10%.

Newbuild scenario

New built orders due to enter the fleet in 2019 are just under 50m dwt compared to around 25m dwt for 2018. For 2020 we estimate that there is around 45m dwt due to enter the dry bulk fleet.

In terms of vessel numbers, the largest fleet is the Supramax fleet with over 2800 vessels trading and approximately 296 ships on order. Unsurprisingly, in terms of dwt the cape sector leads with over 325 million dwt both trading and on order.

Capesize rank below Supramax

If we take into consideration the number of vessels on order by vessel type the most popular sector is the Panamax and Post Panamax range combined, they account for 35% of the dry bulk order book or 30 million dwt. In contrast, if we look at the order book in terms of dwt capacity, the capesize sector stands at just over 50 million dwt, however, in terms of the number of vessels on order, the capes rank below the supramaxes at 22% of the fleet.

Balance in supply & demand

Should vessel supply conditions remain constant i.e. should the order book remain relatively stable and should demolition continue at current levels than the outlook for the supply-demand balance is positive.

However, with uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic factors, the future for demand is unclear due to ongoing trade tensions between the US and China which affect dry bulk trades along with the slowdown in the global economy which will have a negative effect on dry bulk demand over time.

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Source: alibrashipping

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