- The global container fleet grew by 10.6% in 2024, with Cape of Good Hope diversions mitigating overcapacity concerns.
- The Asia-Europe trade absorbed 59% of the additional capacity, driven by re-routing to avoid the Red Sea.
- Despite fleet growth, re-routing effectively limited idle tonnage to just 0.6% of the total fleet.
The year 2024 marked a pivotal period for liner shipping. The Cape of Good Hope diversions played a critical role in countering overcapacity concerns. This shift in routing, driven by geopolitical risks in the Red Sea, reshaped fleet deployment and ensured minimal idle tonnage despite significant fleet expansion, reports SAFETY4SEA.
Fleet Growth and Cape Diversions
Over the past year, the global container fleet expanded by 10.6%, adding nearly 3 Mteu of capacity. Asia-Europe trade absorbed 1.76 Mteu, or 59% of the additional slots, as carriers rerouted services via the Cape of Good Hope to bypass the Red Sea.
This adjustment played a key role in addressing the surge in capacity.
Impact on Asia-Europe Trade Capacity
While fleet growth for Asia-Europe trade rose by 31% year-on-year, the increase in weekly capacity offered on the route was much smaller.
By December 2024, weekly slots had risen by only 8.8%, or 38,360 teu, compared to the previous year, as rerouting stretched the effective utilization of vessels.
Avoiding Overcapacity
The re-routing via the Cape of Good Hope absorbed so much capacity that warnings of overcapacity in 2024 were largely unfounded.
The industry ended the year with only 0.6% of the global container ship fleet commercially inactive. It is a stark contrast to prior concerns.
2024: The Year of the Red Sea Crisis
The year 2024 will be remembered as the “Year of the Red Sea Crisis” in liner shipping. It marks a stark departure from the COVID-19 years (2021-2022).
This crisis, while challenging, underscored the industry’s resilience and ability to adapt to geopolitical disruptions.
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Source: SAFETY4SEA
