At the close of Week 30, the global bunker market experienced varied price movements across different fuel types, as tracked by MABUX. The overall trend remained uneven, without a clear direction.
Global Bunker Indices (Week 30)
- 380 HSFO (High Sulfur Fuel Oil): Decreased slightly by $1.04, settling at $465.81 USD/MT, remaining well below the $500.00 threshold.
- VLSFO (Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil): Also saw a decline, falling by $2.87 to $555.51 USD/MT.
- MGO (Marine Gas Oil): Showed an increase of $4.71, climbing to $792.39 USD/MT, nearing the $800.00 level.
Scrubber Spread (SS) Dynamics
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO) continued its moderate decline, falling by $1.83 to $89.70 from $91.53 in the previous week. This spread consistently remains below the “SS Breakeven point” of $100.00, suggesting that using conventional VLSFO is currently more economically viable than the HSFO + Scrubber option.
Regional SS spread movements:
- Rotterdam: Slipped by $1.00, from $68.00 to $67.00.
- Singapore: Fell by $4.00, from $103.00 to $99.00, dipping below the key $100.00 level.
These modest declines in SS Spread values are projected to continue into the next week, potentially indicating a more sustainable trend.
Natural Gas Market Overview
According to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI), global natural gas production in 58 countries decreased by 4.8 billion cubic meters (bcm) in May 2025 compared to April. This decline was primarily due to lower output in Russia (-3.2 bcm), the United States (-1.6 bcm), and Norway (-1.3 bcm). However, compared to May 2024, global gas production rose by 0.7 bcm, supported by increased output in China, Qatar, Nigeria, and a modest year-on-year gain in the United States.
Natural gas demand in JODI-reporting countries dropped by 12 bcm month-on-month and by 2.7 bcm year-on-year in May, largely attributed to relatively mild spring temperatures. Consumption notably fell in the US, South Korea, Japan, Turkey, and the UK. Within the EU and the UK, demand decreased by 2.1 bcm compared to April but increased by 2.8 bcm relative to May 2024.
European Gas Storage and Prices
As of July 22, European regional gas storage facilities were filled to 65.42%, an increase of 2.18 percentage points from the previous week. However, this level remains 5.91 percentage points lower than at the start of the year (71.33%). The European Union continues efforts to replenish gas reserves. By the end of Week 30, the European gas benchmark TTF recorded a decline of 1.334 euros/MWh, falling to 33.111 euros/MWh from 34.445 euros/MWh the previous week.
The price of LNG as a bunker fuel in the port of Sines, Portugal, continued its decline, falling by another $6 over the past week to $809/MT from $815/MT. Notably, as of July 21, the price differential between LNG and conventional fuel (MGO LS, quoted at $812/MT in Sines) shifted in favor of LNG for the first time since July 29, 2024, with a price gap of $3 in favor of LNG.
MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) (Week 30)
The MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which compares market bunker prices (MBP) to the digital bunker benchmark MABUX (DBP), showed varied trends in major bunkering hubs (Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston):
- 380 HSFO Segment: All four ports remained in the undervalued zone. Rotterdam’s MDI was unchanged, while Singapore and Fujairah saw slight increases. Houston experienced a noticeable drop.
- VLSFO Segment: Rotterdam was the only overvalued port, although its MDI decreased and moved closer to the 100% correlation mark. Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston remained undervalued, with varying levels of increase or decrease in undervaluation.
- MGO LS Segment: Rotterdam shifted into the overvalued zone, becoming the only overvalued port in this category. Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston continued to be undervalued, with their MDI levels dropping. Fujairah’s MDI in this segment remained steadily above the $100.00 mark.
Overall, Rotterdam entered the overvalued category in both the VLSFO and MGO LS segments, but the broader global market continues to exhibit a trend of undervaluation in bunker fuel prices. These MDI dynamics are expected to persist into the next week.
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Source: MABUX on LinkedIn
