- A surge in transpacific shipping capacity is underway following the pause in the US–China trade war, with Asia–North America West Coast (NAWC) capacity forecast to grow over 30% year-over-year (Y/Y) in nearly half of the next 11 weeks.
- In June and July, Asia–NAWC capacity is expected to rise 12.8% and 16.5%, respectively, compared to pre-pause levels, with a combined injection of 397,000 TEU.
- If this capacity growth aligns with a corresponding volume increase, ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach could face unprecedented import volumes, surpassing even pandemic-era peaks.
The easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China has triggered an aggressive response from shipping lines, eager to capitalize on a renewed demand surge. On the Asia–North America West Coast (NAWC) route, weekly capacity is set to grow more than 30% Y/Y in five of the next 11 weeks, with a steep climb already visible in recent data, according to Sea Intelligence.
June–July Capacity Injections Signal Rapid Growth
Looking at the broader June–July period, carriers are set to increase capacity on the Asia–NAWC corridor by 12.8% in June and by 16.5% in July compared to levels before the tariff pause. This translates to a combined 397,000 TEU increase over just two months—a clear indication of the market’s urgency to meet the expected volume rebound.
Year-over-Year Growth Could Strain West Coast Terminals
Perhaps more critical is the expected 18% Y/Y capacity growth across these two months. While it remains uncertain whether demand will fully match this increase, such a scenario could have significant consequences for key U.S. gateways, especially the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (LA/LB).
Projected Volume Pressure on LA/LB
Assuming demand growth keeps pace with capacity, LA/LB ports could experience one of their busiest periods on record. For the Port of Los Angeles, projected June volumes would approach the 2024 peak, while July’s volumes would surpass even those recorded during the pandemic surge of 2021. Meanwhile, the Port of Long Beach would see all-time high import volumes for both June and July.
Capacity Surge Could Create Port Bottlenecks
With shipping lines aggressively deploying tonnage and ports bracing for record-breaking activity, the risk of congestion looms large. Whether or not the demand materializes to match this injection, the Asia–NAWC trade lane—and the ports at its U.S. terminus—are entering a high-stakes phase that could redefine throughput dynamics in the months ahead.
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Source: Sea-Intelligence
