Across the major East-West head haul trades: Transpacific, Transatlantic, and Asia-North Europe & Med, 54 canceled sailings have been announced between week 35 (26 Aug-1 Sep) and week 39 (23 Sep-29 Sep), out of a total of 697 scheduled sailings, representing 8% cancellation rate, reports Drewry.
Cancelled Sailings Tracker
During this period, 56% of the blank sailings will occur on the Transpacific Eastbound, 24% on the Transatlantic Westbound trade, and 20% on the Asia-North Europe and Med.
Over the next five weeks, THE Alliance has announced 14.5 cancellations, followed by OCEAN Alliance and 2M with 12.5 and 4 cancellations, respectively. During the same period, 23 blank sailings have been implemented by non-Alliance services.
As seen in the chart above, we are seeing a decline in the schedule reliability; on average 92% of the ships are expected to sail as scheduled, over the next five weeks, however, 2M is projected to hit 97%.
The anticipated strike by Canadian Railways is expected to initiate a challenging period for North American supply chains, especially with a dockworker strike on the US East and Gulf coasts potentially starting on 1 October. This could cause additional disruptions and allow carriers to increase ocean freight rates.
However, the forecasted drop in blank sailings from 91 in August to 44 in September, a 51% decrease, along with an increase in effective capacity and improved space availability, suggests that rates on unaffected routes might fall as supported by the Drewry WCI Composite Index, which fell by another 2% WoW to $5,319 on 22 August. Rates on Asia-North Europe and Med routes decreased 5%, Transatlantic rates dropped 1%, while Transpacific rates saw a 1% increase.
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Source: Drewry
