Data Driven Innovation Lab provides continuous predictive monitoring of COVID-19 developments as a complement to monitoring confirmed cases on their website. SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model is regressed with data from different countries to estimate the pandemic life cycle curves and predict when the pandemic might end in respective countries and the world, with codes from Milan Batista and data from Our World in Data.
A disclaimer* added in the article states that the content from the website is strictly only for educational and research purposes and may contain errors. The below graphs and tables are Data-Driven Estimation of End Dates (updated on April 27).
*Disclaimer: Content from this website is STRICTLY ONLY for educational and research purposes and may contain errors. The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries. Predictions are uncertain by nature. Readers must take any predictions with caution. Overly optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided.
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Source: DDI
