- Scientific advisers are bracing themselves for hundreds of UK cases of the Omicron Covid variant to be confirmed in the next week or so, the Guardian has learned.
- Evidence of community transmission also emerged on Monday.
- Now the Guardian understands that scientific advisers are bracing themselves for the possibility of several hundred cases of the Omicron variant being detected within days.
- Other scientists said the spread was difficult to estimate.
Hundreds of UK instances of the Omicron Covid type are expected to be confirmed in the next week or two, according to scientific consultants, according to The Guardian.
Omicron
Some of them may predate the earliest cases of Omicron found in South Africa last week but could still be linked to travellers returning from the country, it is understood.
Evidence of community transmission also emerged on Monday.
Omicron, which is believed to be more transmissible than dominant Covid-19 variants and has the potential to evade vaccines, was first reported to the World Health Organization from South Africa on 24 November.
On Monday morning, six new cases involving the Omicron variant had been identified in Scotland and this time some had no travel history.
Scientists had previously stressed that while flight bans could delay the importation of Omicron, the variant would nonetheless arrive.
Other scientists said the spread was difficult to estimate.
More infections
“It is worth remembering, though, that there is a lag between individuals being infected and cases being reported, so at the point that cases are detected, it is likely that there are more infections in the community,” said Prof Michael Tildesley, an expert in mathematical modelling of infectious disease at the University of Warwick and a member of the modelling group Spi-M that advises the government.
However, it is yet unknown how transmissible this new variation is, how effective vaccinations will be, and how severe Omicron infection will be.
“At that time, slowing down rather than eradicating Omicron in Scotland would be the priority.
“Even then, it would most likely be only a matter of time.”
“However, that is far from certain, and hence, as always, greater efforts to curb spread now may result in significant epidemiological benefits later,” he said.
Basic precautions
“Of course, whatever precautions we take now may be unnecessary if the Omicron variation turns out to be sufficiently benign that overall levels of severe illness and hospitalisation remain tolerable — but we won’t know for several weeks.”
Some experts have urged for immediate action, including the suggestion that people work from home.
“We need to put basic precautions in place with Omicron, even if it turns out to be less dangerous than we thought,” said Stephen Reicher, a member of the behavioural science advisory committee Spi-B and a professor of psychology at the University of St Andrews.
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Source: The Guardian
