Caspian
Kazakhstan & Azerbaijan
Liquids output in Kazakhstan fell by 64 tb/d m-o-m to an average of 1.8 mb/d in August.
Crude production was down by 30 tb/d m-o-m to average 1.5 mb/d. At the same time, NGL and condensate output dropped by 34 tb/d m-o-m to average 0.3 mb/d.
For 2023, the liquids supply is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d to average 1.9 mb/d, revised down by 10 tb/d from the previous forecast.
Oil production in August was disrupted mainly due to scheduled maintenance at the Tengiz field. Additional maintenance is also estimated in September at the Karachaganak gas condensate field.
Caspian monthly liquids production development by selected Country For 2024, the liquids supply is forecast to increase by around 80 tb/d to average 2.0 mb/d, mainly due to production ramp-ups in the Tengiz oil field through an expansion at the Tengizchevroil Future Growth Project (FGP) and wellhead pressure management project. Oil production in the Kashagan field and gas condensate output in the Karachaganak field are also expected to rise marginally.
Azerbaijan’s liquids production in August remained broadly stable m-o-m, averaging 0.6 mb/d, which is a drop of 30 tb/d y-o-y. Crude production averaged 497 tb/d, with NGL output at 138 tb/d, according to official sources.
Azerbaijan’s liquids supply for 2023 is forecast to drop by around 10 tb/d to average 0.7 mb/d. This is a downward revision of around 10 tb/d, due to lower-than-expected major oil field production in August. Declines in legacy reservoirs, like the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) oil fields, are expected to be primarily offset by ramp-ups in other fields this year.
Azerbaijan’s liquids supply for 2024 is forecast to decline by around 10 tb/d to average 0.7 mb/d. Growth is forecast to come partly from the Shah Deniz, Absheron and Umid-Babek gas condensate projects. Production in Azerbaijan’s ACG oil fields should also get a boost next year, with a seventh ACG platform. However, the overall decline rate is expected to be higher than the planned ramp-ups.
OPEC NGLs and non conventional liquids
OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to expand by around 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. NGL production is projected to grow by 50 tb/d to average 5.3 mb/d, while non-conventional liquids are forecast to remain unchanged at 0.1 mb/d.
Preliminary data shows NGL output in 3Q23 is expected to average 5.33 mb/d, while non-conventional output is forecast to remain steady at 0.1 mb/d. Taken together, 5.42 mb/d is expected for August, according to preliminary data.
The preliminary 2024 forecast indicates growth of 65 tb/d for an average of 5.5 mb/d. NGL production is projected to grow by 65 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d, while non-conventional liquids are projected to remain unchanged at 0.1 mb/d.
OPEC crude oil production
According to secondary sources, total OPEC-13 crude oil production averaged 27.75 mb/d in September 2023, higher by 273 tb/d m-o-m. Crude oil output increased mainly in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, while production in Venezuela and Equatorial Guinea decreased.
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Source : Opec
