China’s Q3 2023 saw a remarkable 10% YoY increase in total cargo throughput, fueled by surging commodity imports, NWLC expansion in Guangxi, and a low base in 2022 due to weakened demand from Europe and the US.
Driving Factors
In the third quarter of 2023, China’s total cargo throughput increased by 10% year-on-year, driven by a surge in major commodity imports, the expansion of the New Western Land-Sea Corridor (NWLC) leading to a 29% YoY increase in cargo throughput in Guangxi, and a low base in 2022 due to weak demand from Europe and the US.
Total container throughput also rose by 6% YoY, with growth attributed to the NWLC, increased trade within the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and Dalian Port’s addition of five foreign trade routes in 2023, according to Fitch Ratings.
Export Challenges
China’s exports declined by 11% year-on-year, with notable decreases in exports to ASEAN and the EU (17.0% and 17.5% respectively), as well as a slight drop in exports to the US (14.3%). Despite this, exports to Russia increased by 28.4%.
Fitch Ratings anticipates that port throughput could benefit from the recovery in consumer spending in both the US and China. However, global manufacturing activities, particularly in the Eurozone, remain weak, as indicated by a low manufacturing PMI.
The New Western Land-Sea Corridor (NWLC) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) are expected to contribute to overall throughput growth. On the other hand, the recovery of manufacturing in China is likely to support demand for commodities, potentially bolstering cargo throughput.
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Source: Fitch Ratings
