Fearnleys summarizes the tanker market scenario for week 38 of 2024.
VLCC
The rates have continued to creep up and owners are feeling they are now in a position to try and push this further. Holidays in the Far East combined with waiting for the new dates have kept proceedings slow paced, but the hang over of tonnage from the previous September would seem to be lesser than it has been in the past few months. New stem dates have been rolled out and we will see charterers coming to the market today onwards albeit under the radar in order to try and keep a lid on the sentiment. One early October cargo has attracted 7 offers and charterers are taking their time to cover.
In the West, short voyages are attractive so much so that they are being discounted just so owners have kept their ships in the West to try and make the most of Q4. Long East voyages are still attracting a premium. Petrobras are in the market which will be a good test of the levels.
Suezmax
The October fixing window tends to act as a bellwether for the ensuing Winter market, and whilst it’s too early to talk fireworks today, there are very few areas of weakness and definitely areas that are beginning to exhibit all the hallmarks of an exciting market.
The US Gulf remains the trend setter for all markets, and whilst Aframaxes remain flat, there are signs of life on Suezmax with rates gently firming and on the cusp of hitting 145kt x WS 70 (although at the time of going to press last done trades WS 67.5.)
In the East, there’s a rumor of 130kt x WS 115 on subjects for MEG/East which suggests that owners have the bit between their teeth.
Aframax
NORTH SEA
Nothing much has changed in the North Sea as dates move forward with some prompt vessels still looking for employment. Relets continue to replenish the area as activity remains moderate. The tonnage list is on the shorter side with non-local/non-relet vessels continuing to look outside of the region for employment, the ballast to the USG still the preference despite softer trends in that sector.
MEDITERRANEAN
The prolonged lack of activity from Libya seems to have capped owners’ bullish sentiment for the time being, with rates in the Mediterranean repeating as we move into early October fixing dates. Delays in the Straits and itineraries will define rates moving forward, but with vessels piling up for the next window we could possibly be looking at taking a step backwards.
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Source: Fearnleys
