The maritime industry is steadily progressing towards decarbonization, motivated by EU regulations and IMO objectives. However, the transition to an alternative-fuelled fleet is facing challenges, with carbon-neutral fuels remaining costly and scarce in the short term. DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 report reaffirms this assessment and suggests implementing more practical decarbonization strategies for the shipping industry over the next decade, reports DNV.
Emission Reduction
The destination and waypoints for shipping’s energy transition are set by the IMO goals: a 20% emissions reduction by 2030, a 70% reduction by 2040, and full-scale decarbonization by or around 2050, all compared with 2008 levels.
Adding insight into how much carbon-neutral fuels can drive the transition to 2030 and beyond, Maritime Forecast to 2050 assesses their existing and planned production. Factoring in the probability of plans becoming reality, it estimates potential “High” and “Low” levels of fuel output for each year.
The report estimates the cumulative capacity of ongoing or announced carbon-neutral fuel production capacities for 2030 to be 44 to 63 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe). Maritime demand in 2030 is forecasted at 7 to 48 Mtoe. Depending on the actual demands, shipping would need 10 to 100% of the actual available carbon-neutral fuels to reach IMO targets.
On Board Carbon Capture
On-board carbon capture (OCC) is attracting interest because it could delay the need for carbon-neutral fuels by removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from conventional fuels and technologies.
OCC could be technically and economically feasible depending on carbon pricing and the availability of value chains and infrastructure for carbon use or permanent storage, a recent DNV white paper concluded.
Maritime Forecast to 2050 assesses the value chain required and presents the status of and outlook for carbon storage, suggesting how OCC could become viable for vessels on busy shipping routes.
Based on “High” and “Low” trajectories of CO2 storage capacity for all industries and purposes excluding enhanced oil recovery, the report sees 47 to 67 MtCO2 capacity being available in 2030 compared with its estimated storage demand of 4 to 76 MtCO2 from shipping.
Shore Power versus Electrofuels
Around 7% of ships’ energy consumption is in port. The resultant emissions can be abated using power from shore. The degree of abatement depends on the carbon footprint of the local electricity supply – is it from renewables such as wind or solar, for example?
Maritime Forecast to 2050 compares energy losses from direct use of shore power and when producing electricity from on-board generators running on fossil fuels or the electrofuel e-ammonia. The energy losses are used to calculate total greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity per usable energy unit. The calculations consider power-grid GHG intensity for different countries and regions and from coal-fired power generation.
Nuclear Propulsion
Building on a case study in last year’s edition, this year’s report updates and elaborates on factors relevant to answering this question.
It discusses whether small modular reactors could be widely used in the global merchant fleet, potentially creating opportunities for standardization and joint development in technology choice, regulation, and safety follow-up for onshore reactors.
Energy Efficiency
Maritime Forecast to 2050 extensively analyses how digitalization can enable operational efficiency, smooth contractual arrangements, and facilitate reliable, flexible, dynamic emissions reporting.
Recent advancements in digital tools like AI, machine learning, IoT, and computer simulations have greatly improved and facilitated the reduction of the carbon footprint of shipping operations. These technologies fall into four categories: sensing, enabling, data handling, and decision-making. When interacting, these technologies can help the shipping industry to fully leverage digitalization for better efficiency and sustainability.
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Source: DNV
