According to Bimco , In the first nine months of 2024, seaborne shipments of jet fuel saw a significant rise, increasing by 11% compared to 2023. This brought total shipments to 461 million barrels, or 1.7 million barrels per day, according to BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Niels Rasmussen. The growth in jet fuel shipments has paralleled the recovery in airline passenger traffic, with Available Seat Kilometres (ASK) surpassing pre-COVID levels for the first time since the pandemic.
Airline Traffic and Jet Fuel Demand
Airline cargo traffic bounced back quickly after the COVID pandemic in 2020, maintaining levels close to those seen in 2019. In contrast, passenger traffic lagged behind, with ASK in 2023 still 6.2% below 2019 figures. However, 2024 marked a turning point, as ASK consistently stayed above 2019 levels, showing a 3.1% year-to-date increase.
This resurgence in passenger travel has supported the recovery in jet fuel demand, with volumes now 56% higher than in 2021. Jet fuel has also grown as a share of clean petroleum product shipments, rising from 6% in 2021 to 8.5% in 2024.
Geographic Trends in Jet Fuel Shipments
The Persian Gulf and the Red Sea have been the largest contributors to the growth in jet fuel shipments, accounting for 41% of the increase between 2021 and 2024. China, South Asia, and North America followed, contributing 24%, 15%, and 13% respectively.
On the destination side, North Europe and the Mediterranean have driven the increase, representing 36% and 15% of the overall rise in jet fuel volumes. Trading patterns have remained relatively stable over the past four years, with the exception of the Red Sea crisis, which has led to longer average sailing distances.
Shift in Vessel Types and Future Projections
Larger LR2 tankers have gained market share over smaller MRs and Handy vessels, particularly in the East-to-West trade route. So far in 2024, LR2s have loaded 23% of jet fuel shipments, compared to 17% in 2021.
While some international routes, especially to and from China, continue to lag behind in recovery, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts an average annual growth of 6.3% in passenger volumes over the next three years. This growth is expected to further drive the demand for seaborne jet fuel, supporting future expansion in the sector.
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Source: Bimco
