Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, heavily depends on Russia for its wheat supply. Russia’s wheat is affordable and readily available, making it a crucial source for Egypt’s domestic needs, according to AJOT.
Frequent Tenders
The Egyptian General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) consistently engages in tenders to purchase large quantities of wheat from Russia, ensuring a steady flow of this critical commodity. In 2023, despite facing logistical challenges stemming from international sanctions, Egypt managed to secure substantial wheat supplies from Russia. This resilience speaks to the adaptability of both countries in maintaining their trade relationship under challenging circumstances.
This week, the focus is particularly on the Russian grain sector and the remarkable recovery in shipments that began in June, culminating in a recent peak in September. Notably, the quarterly volume of grain shipped to all destinations has reached its highest levels for the year, surpassing figures from the same quarters in previous years since 2021. This surge is indicative of Russia’s ability to navigate supply chain disruptions and fulfil international demand.
For the current year, Egypt has emerged as the primary destination for Russian grain, accounting for 20% of the total volume shipped—up from a 15% share last year. In contrast, Turkey was the leading recipient in 2022, also with a 15% share. This shift in trade dynamics underscores evolving demand patterns and may reflect geopolitical influences that are reshaping regional grain distribution networks.
Freight Rates Weaker
The dry bulk freight market is experiencing a weakening momentum in the large vessel size categories, with Capesize rates from Brazil to North China showing the weakest trend since the peak in week 39.
- Capesize vessel freight rates for shipments from Brazil to North China have settled at $20 per ton, marking a 14% decline from the previous week and a 24% drop compared to the previous month.
- Panamax vessel freight rates from the Continent to the Far East held steady at approximately $35 per ton, reflecting a monthly decline of 9%.
- Supramax vessel freight rates on the Indo-ECI route remain around $10.5 per ton, reflecting a monthly decrease of 7%.
- Handysize freight rates for the NOPAC Far East route have remained steady at $35 per ton since April, marking a 13% increase compared to the same period last year.
Ballasters Mixed
The final week of October shows a mixed trend, with congestion levels rising in the Capesize, Supramax, and Handysize segments, while the Panamax segment continues to experience a decline.
- Capesize SE Africa: The number of vessels has begun to rise, approaching the annual average of 110, which is 20 more than the low point recorded in week 38.
- Panamax SE Africa: There has been a persistent decreasing trend, with recent levels now hovering around 92, 40 lower than the annual average.
- Supramax SE Asia: Following a surge to 120 ballast ships in the previous week, there appears to be a downward revision in numbers, although this has yet to be confirmed before the end of the month.
- Handysize NOPAC: An upward revision above the annual average seems to be occurring, with levels now around 85—20 higher than the low recorded in week 38.
Port Congestion
Congestion at Chinese dry bulk ports has declined over the past three consecutive weeks, with a downward trend evident across the Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax vessel segments.
- Capesize: Capesize vessel congestion remained below 140 ships, a drop of over 10 vessels compared to the previous week’s levels.
- Panamax: The number of Panamax vessels has now dropped below the 200 mark, reflecting a decrease of 10 compared to the previous week.
- Supramax: Congestion levels dropped below 300 vessels, a decrease of 9 compared to the levels recorded a week ago.
- Handysize: Congestion levels once again surpassed the 200 mark, increasing by 6 from the previous week but still 20 below the peak recorded in week 38.
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Source: AJOT
