- Weekly cancelled sailings amount to 7% of scheduled sailings across major East-West trades.
- Transpacific Eastbound trade has the highest share of blank sailings (58%), followed by Transatlantic Westbound (29%) and Asia-North Europe/Med (13%).
- Reliability in scheduled sailings has improved, with an average of 93% expected to sail as planned over the next five weeks.
- Drewry’s WCI Composite Index rose by 7% to $3,444 per 40-foot container, with Asia-North Europe/Med rates up by 19%.
- Future rate hikes are planned, and Transpacific rates may see further shifts due to potential tariff adjustments.
According to Drewry, the weekly Cancelled Sailings Tracker offers insights into the state of blank sailings across major East-West headhaul trades. For the period from November 11 to December 15, 2024, a total of 48 out of 693 scheduled sailings have been canceled, marking a 7% cancellation rate across the Transpacific, Transatlantic, and Asia-North Europe/Med routes.
Breakdown of Cancelled Sailings and Alliance Impact
The majority of the cancellations (58%) are on the Transpacific Eastbound route, followed by 29% on the Transatlantic Westbound and 13% on the Asia-North Europe/Med routes. The OCEAN Alliance and THE Alliance have each reported 9 cancellations, while 2M Alliance has planned for 4, alongside 26 cancellations by non-Alliance carriers.
Improvements in Schedule Reliability
Schedule reliability has seen a positive trend, with an expected 93% of vessels maintaining their schedules across the next five weeks. The 2M Alliance, in particular, is expected to achieve 97% reliability during this period.
Rate Developments and Seasonal Capacity Adjustments
On November 7, Drewry’s WCI Composite Index rose by 7% to reach $3,444 per 40-foot container. Rates on Asia-North Europe/Med trades increased by 19%, while Transpacific rates remained steady and Transatlantic rates fell slightly by 2%. Carriers have managed to increase rates consecutively, aided by the November 1 GRIs and capacity adjustments, but maintaining these rates may be challenging as demand potentially decreases in the slack season.
Anticipated Rate Changes and Transpacific Market Effects
Additional rate increases are expected on November 15, especially on Asia-North Europe/Med routes where ongoing contract rate negotiations are closely tied to spot rate movements. Transpacific rates could experience additional volatility as U.S. importers may bring forward shipments in anticipation of potential tariffs under the incoming administration, which could drive demand and possibly further increase rates.
Did you subscribe to our daily Newsletter?
It’s Free Click here to Subscribe!
Source: Drewry
