- Houthi-led attacks in the Red Sea have escalated since 2023, targeting commercial and military vessels and disrupting global shipping lanes.
- The maritime domain is heavily influenced by regional conflicts, U.S. policies, and the Iran-backed Houthi agenda.
- Security strategies for 2025 will hinge on U.S. regional alliances, countermeasures against Iran, and stabilization efforts in the Red Sea.
The Red Sea region has emerged as a critical hotspot for maritime conflict, with Houthi-led attacks disrupting global shipping and creating significant security challenges. These attacks have led to defensive naval operations by Western and regional forces, but the broader geopolitical landscape, including U.S.-Iran tensions and the Gaza war, continues to shape the maritime crisis. As 2025 approaches, the future of these waterways hangs in the balance, with global and regional policies playing a decisive role, reports Washington Institute.
Houthi Maritime Campaign: Phases and Escalation
The Houthis have divided their campaign into five phases, progressively expanding their target list from Israel-linked vessels to those associated with the U.S., UK, and Israel’s trading partners.
By mid-2024, their attacks had significantly disrupted southern Red Sea transit, forcing many shipping companies to reroute.
Impact on Global Shipping
Major players like Maersk have avoided the Red Sea, increasing costs and freight rates by taking longer routes. However, some companies like CMA CGM continue limited regional operations, relying on sporadic naval escorts.
The crisis has also led to production relocations, such as European producers moving to Dubai to mitigate shipping disruptions.
Western and Regional Responses
Defensive operations, including the U.S.-led Operation Prosperity Guardian and European Operation Aspides, have helped intercept Houthi weapons and protect merchant ships.
Military strikes like Poseidon Archer targeted Houthi stockpiles but failed to deter the group fully. Stronger regional alliances and more effective interdiction strategies are needed to ensure lasting security.
Russia and Secondary Effects
Houthi attacks on ships like the Cordelia Moon have inadvertently highlighted Russian oil trading activities in the region.
Despite fewer attacks in late 2024, Russia-linked and other international vessels remain vulnerable due to outdated Houthi targeting data.
Future Scenarios: 2025 and Beyond
The maritime risks will depend on U.S.-Iran relations and the resolution of the Gaza war. A tough U.S. stance against Iran could provoke intensified Houthi involvement, with attacks potentially extending beyond traditional zones into the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean.
Conversely, improved regional cooperation and peace initiatives could stabilize the Red Sea.
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Source: Washington Institute
