- The beginning of 2025 brings uncertainty to both dry bulk and tanker sectors.
- Bulk carrier deliveries are projected to reach 541 vessels, marking the highest volume since 2016.
- The product tanker segment sees a significant rise in deliveries, expected to hit the highest level since 2009.
The year 2025 starts amidst considerable uncertainty in the shipping industry, especially in the dry bulk and tanker sectors. With ongoing geopolitical tensions, the possibility of new tariffs and sanctions from the newly elected U.S. president adds further volatility. Amid these challenges, tonnage supply stands relatively stable. A closer look at the vessel deliveries expected for 2025 can offer a clearer picture of the market dynamics and what lies ahead for the freight industry, reports Breakwave Advisors.
Bulk Carrier Sector Outlook
The bulk carrier sector is set for a significant rise in vessel deliveries, with 541 bulk carriers expected to be added to the fleet in 2025. It brings a combined capacity of 38.33 million dwt.
This is an increase of 51 vessels and 4.49 million dwt compared to 2024, marking the highest delivery numbers since 2016 in terms of volume and since 2021 in dwt terms.
The delivery breakdown includes 40 Capesize vessels, 15 Post Panamax vessels, 121 Kamsarmax/Panamax vessels, and 196 Ultramax/Supramax vessels, with the latter reaching the highest number since 2016.
Tanker Sector Dynamics
The crude tanker sector is expected to see 43 vessels delivered in 2025. It totals 7.15 million dwt, a notable rise from just 17 vessels in 2024.
Despite this increase, the 2025 numbers remain relatively low compared to previous years. Crude tanker deliveries are expected to be the second-lowest in dwt terms and the lowest in vessel count since 2015.
The breakdown includes 5 VLCCs, 30 Suezmax, and 8 Aframax tankers. Only the Suezmax deliveries exceeded the five-year average of 22 vessels.
Product Tanker Segment Growth
The product tanker sector presents a stark contrast, with a projected 179 vessels over 10,000 dwt expected to join the fleet in 2025, totaling 12.09 million dwt.
This marks a dramatic increase from the 49 product tankers delivered in 2024, which amounted to just 3.37 million dwt.
The anticipated growth positions 2025 to be the best year for product tanker deliveries since 2009, recovering from the historically low deliveries recorded in 2024.
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Source: Breakwave Advisors
