Dry Bulk Freight Market: January Trends Across Vessel Sizes

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  • The Capesize Brazil–North China freight market remains steady, while Panamax rates are under pressure due to excess tonnage.
  • Iron ore prices surged in mid-January due to optimism over China’s economic stimulus measures.
  • Chinese port congestion for dry bulk ships declined across most vessel sizes, except for Handysize vessels, which showed a slight increase.

As January nears its end, the dry bulk freight market shows varied performance across vessel categories. Capesize freight rates maintain stability, while Panamax and smaller vessel sizes experience downward trends. Meanwhile, iron ore prices have recovered amid positive economic developments in China, reports AJOT.

Freight Market Highlights

Rates for Brazil–North China shipments stabilized at $18/ton, an 8% monthly rise but still 20% lower year-on-year.

Rates on the Continent–Far East route dropped below $320/ton, a 25% annual decline.

Smaller Vessel Declines:

  1. Supramax: Rates on the Indo-ECI route fell below $7/ton (18% monthly drop).
  2. Handysize: NOPAC Far East rates dropped to $27/ton (8% monthly decline).

Supply Trends: Increasing Ballasters

  1. Capesize: Numbers stayed above the annual average of 104 vessels.
  2. Panamax: Levels rebounded, exceeding 190 vessels after a drop in late 2023.
  3. Supramax: A strong recovery from early-month lows, trending above the annual average of 100 vessels.
  4. Handysize: Continued upward trend, nearing 100 vessels by month’s end.

Dry Bulk Demand: Declining Tonne-Days

  1. Capesize: Decline over the past two weeks but above Q4 2023 lows.
  2. Panamax: Weakest tonne-day growth since late Q3 2023.
  3. Supramax: Moderately stronger momentum compared to other categories despite a decline.
  4. Handysize: Persistent downward trend through January, with further deceleration expected.

Port Congestion: Easing Levels

  1. Capesize: Congestion at Chinese ports dropped to 109 vessels, 13 fewer than the previous week.
  2. Panamax: Decreased below 200 vessels, a sharp drop of 49 compared to mid-January.
  3. Supramax: Levels fell below 290, 10 fewer than earlier in January.
  4. Handysize: Slight increase to 200 vessels, with potential for further growth.

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Source: AJOT