The MABUX global bunker indices saw a moderate increase in the 4th week, with 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO indices all rising. However, recent market signals suggest a potential downward trend in global bunker prices, reports MABUX on LinkedIn.
Global Scrubber Spread
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) – the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO – increased slightly by $2.59, reaching $86.44. However, it remained below the $100.00 breakeven mark. The weekly average of the index also saw a moderate increase of $3.67.
Regional variations were observed. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread narrowed by $1.00 to $79.00, while the weekly average increased by $1.00. Conversely, in Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO spread declined significantly by $8.00 to $88.00, with the weekly average decreasing by $4.50. Overall, the Global SS Spread and regional indices lacked a clear trend, consistently staying below the $100.00 threshold.
No significant changes in the SS Spread dynamics are anticipated next week. The indicators are likely to continue their irregular fluctuations. In the European electricity markets, gas prices, wind power generation, and demand levels have shown limited volatility. Lower gas prices and increased wind power generation have driven down energy prices in some regions while rising demand has pushed prices higher in others.
The natural gas market is expected to remain resilient and experience an upward trend in the medium term. This is primarily attributed to the expansion of global LNG production capacity and the development of import infrastructure, solidifying LNG’s role as a key energy source in Europe. As of January 20, European regional storage facilities were 59.38% full, a decrease of 5.60% from last week and 11.95% from the beginning of the year. The gas withdrawal process is currently underway. At the end of Week 04, the European gas benchmark TTF rose by 3.08 EUR/MWh, exceeding the 50.00 EUR/MWh mark, reaching 50.027 EUR/MWh compared to 46.947 EUR/MWh last week.
Market Differential Index
The MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) for Week 04 showed mixed dynamics across the four major bunkering hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston.
- 380 HSFO: Singapore returned to overcharge territory, while Rotterdam, Fujairah, and Houston remained undervalued.
- VLSFO: All ports remained in the undercharge zone, with slight variations in weekly average changes.
- MGO LS: All ports shifted to the undervalued zone.
The MDI in Singapore for VLSFO and MGO LS showed a near-perfect correlation between the market price (MBP) and the MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP). Fujairah’s MDI for MGO LS remained above the $100.00 mark.
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Source: MABUX on LinkedIn
