- U.S.-Europe coal shipments declined by 4.5% in 2024, with a weak start in 2025, reflecting reduced European demand and regulatory constraints.
- Freight rates across vessel classes continued to fall, with Capesize rates down 23% YoY and Panamax rates dropping 25% YoY.
- Port congestion in China saw a sharp decline, especially for Capesize vessels, signaling reduced demand and lower dry bulk activity.
Coal exports from the U.S. to Europe saw a 4.5% YoY decline, dropping from 26.4M tonnes in 2023 to 25.2M tonnes in 2024. Regulatory changes, energy policies, and economic slowdowns are likely contributing factors, reports Breakwave Advisors.
Chart of the Week: U.S.-Europe Coal Dry Bulk Flows
2023 Peak: January shipments exceeded 3M tonnes, with steady flows through the year.
2025 Start: January figures were significantly lower than in previous years, reinforcing bearish trends.
Seasonality: Coal shipments typically peak in August-October due to higher demand in late summer/fall.
Vessel Class Trends
Panamax (49.4%) remained the dominant vessel type for coal transport in 2024, though its share dropped from 52.6% in 2023.
Supramax (28.3%) saw an increase from 23.9%, signaling a shift toward mid-sized bulk carriers.
Post-Panamax (11.5%) & Capesize (2.4%) played minimal roles in coal shipments.
Freight Rate Trends
Capesize (Brazil – North China): $17/ton (-8% MoM, -23% YoY)
Panamax (Continent – Far East): <$29/ton (-25% YoY)
Supramax (Indo-ECI Route): <$7/ton (-18% MoM)
Handysize (NOPAC Far East): $25/ton (-15% MoM)
Supply-Demand Trends & Ballaster Activity
Capesize SE Africa: 140+ vessels (24 above annual average) indicate weaker loading demand.
Panamax SE Africa: Increased to 186 vessels (50 above average), reversing the earlier downward trend.
Supramax SE Asia: Declined to 86 vessels, dropping below annual trends.
Handysize NOPAC: Remains stable at ~80 vessels.
Dry Bulk Tonne-Day Growth
Capesize: Growth rate hit record lows in early February.
Panamax: Continued downward revision expected.
Supramax: Slight upward trend, outperforming other segments.
Handysize: The downward trend persists but is slightly better than Panamax.
Chinese Port Congestion
Capesize: Below 100 vessels (-34 from last month).
Panamax: Below 170 vessels, a 30-vessel drop from late January.
Supramax: ~270 vessels (-30 WoW).
Handysize: ~190 vessels, staying below 200 since late 2024.
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Source: Breakwave Advisors
