- Blank Sailings Drop as East-West Trade Routes Face Capacity Challenges.
- Freight Rates Decline as Post-Chinese New Year Demand Wanes.
- Drewry Predicts 7% Cancellation Rate for East-West Trade Lanes.
The Weekly Cancelled Sailings Tracker is a snapshot of blank sailings announced by each Alliance compared to the total number of scheduled sailings. The analysis enables industry stakeholders to evaluate the effects of service cancellations on key trade routes, reports Drewry.
Container Capacity Weekly Insight Subscription
Beyond this snapshot, you might be interested in an annual subscription to our Container Capacity Weekly Insight. It contains in-depth analysis and evaluation of main trades and alliances, along with a weekly report, which will contain events at Los Angeles and Long Beach on port waiting times and comparisons to the prior year.
Cancellation Trends in Major East-West Lanes
Between weeks 7 (10 Feb-16 Feb) and 11 (10 Mar-16 Mar), 48 sailings have been cancelled in the major East-West trade lanes—Transpacific, Transatlantic, and Asia-North Europe & Med. Out of a total of 720 scheduled sailings, this accounts for a 7% cancellation rate. According to Drewry, for the next five weeks, most East-West cancellations will affect:
- Transpacific Eastbound: 54%
- Asia-North Europe & Med: 35%
- Transatlantic Westbound: 10%
- Schedule Reliability Outlook
Over the next five weeks, schedule reliability is expected to improve by a small percentage, with about 93% of vessels likely to operate as scheduled. MSC is expected to maintain a 99% on-time rate during this period, as shown in the chart below. This forecast is based on current schedules and may change if carriers implement additional blank sailings to address overcapacity and operational challenges from new service deployments.
Market Conditions and Freight Rates
With post-Chinese New Year demand easing and industry alliances changing, freight rates remain on a downtrend on key East-West trade lanes. On 6 February, Drewry’s WCI Composite Index declined 3% week-on-week to $3,212 per 40ft container. Week-on-week declines by route are as follows:
- Asia-Europe/Med: -4%
- Transpacific: -1%
- Transatlantic: -10%
The index is 14% lower than the same week last year, indicating continued market rebalancing.
Future Trends and Capacity Management
Currently, blank sailings on major East-West trade lanes are forecasted to drop from 173 in weeks 2-6 to 48 in weeks 7-11. As capacity is ample and fewer blank sailings, carriers will be challenged to hold the current rate levels unless they proactively manage capacity, like during the pandemic.
Market players should closely observe these trends as they shift and navigate through effective market dynamics.
Did you subscribe to our daily Newsletter?
It’s Free Click here to Subscribe!
Source: Drewry
