- VLCC: Quiet due to IE week, volatile rates, high WS 50s to China, WS 57.25 for Brazil-FE. Market expected to tighten post-IE week.
- Suezmax: Weak sentiment, TD20 mid WS 80s, USG/TA near WS 75. Limited Eastern activity, but Basrah barrels may see the upside.
- Aframax: Low activity, cargo shifting to larger vessels. USG may pull tonnage, but rates need more demand.
VLCC
Market activity was subdued this week, largely influenced by IE week in London. The recent volatility in rates continued in the East, with fluctuations that have not lasted long. Presently, rates stand in the high WS 50s for China-bound voyages.
In the West, the market softened slightly due to a lack of US Gulf (USG) business. Tonnage availability has increased in the Atlantic, causing a dip in rates for West-to-East voyages, with Brazil to the Far East last fixed at WS 57.25. However, the overall supply of modern VLCCs remains limited, and the market is expected to firm up for natural loading dates once IE week concludes.
Suezmax
A quiet week for Suezmaxes, contributing to a general softening of the market. West Africa’s available tonnage continues to increase while cargo volumes remain weak, putting downward pressure on TD20, now in the mid WS 80s. Some charterers may have quietly secured barrels amid the busy IE week, but limited transparency has dampened market sentiment.
In the USG, Suezmax activity has shown signs of recovery, although Aframaxes remain the dominant force. Charterers have the advantage for 145kt parcels, with multiple vessels available for early March loadings. USG/TA rates are likely to correct to WS 75.
The Eastern market remains stable, with ample older tonnage preventing any upward movement in rates. However, a shortage of 20T crane-fitted vessels could create upside pressure on Basrah barrels if demand rises.
Aframax
The market remained subdued as natural fixing dates moved into early March. Some cargoes have been taken by larger vessels, reducing demand for Aframaxes. Early tonnage continues to find ballasting out of the region an attractive option.
In the Mediterranean, vessel availability remains high, with ships relocating from the North Sea, further adding to oversupply. While activity in the USG could pull some vessels away, it is unlikely to provide substantial support unless demand increases in the region.
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Source: Fearnleys
