Even with high-level talks, maritime tensions between China and Vietnam are not only continuing but are likely to worsen in the future, according to an academic expert, reports South China Morning Post.
Rapid Expansion
Vietnam has been rapidly expanding its presence in the contested Spratly Islands, reclaiming over 2 sq km in the past five months and upgrading 11 of the 29 features it controls. Some analysts estimate that at its current pace, Vietnam’s island construction could surpass China’s.
China’s response has been relatively quiet so far, especially compared to its disputes with the Philippines. However, analysts believe China is likely concerned about Vietnam’s upgrades. While communication channels exist between the two nations, fundamental disagreements remain.
The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) reported that Vietnam added approximately 2.8 sq km to 10 Spratly Island features between November and May, indicating increased territorial expansion. The South China Sea Probing Initiative (SCSPI) has noted a significant acceleration in Vietnam’s expansion efforts since October 2021, with land reclamation on 11 features. SCSPI director Hu Bo suggests that Vietnam’s activities could exceed China’s past actions and that Beijing needs to address the issue openly with Hanoi.
Chen Xiangmiao from the National Institute for South China Sea Studies believes Vietnam’s island building aims to solidify its control over the Spratlys by establishing a permanent maritime enforcement presence and expanding military deployments.
Contested Region
The AMTI report highlighted that Barque Canada Reef, a Vietnamese-controlled outpost, had expanded to 1.66 sq km by May and is the only one capable of hosting a 3km runway. SCSPI reports the reef is now 2.66 sq km with a rapidly developing airstrip, currently over 410 meters long.
Chen Xiangmiao noted that recent upgrades enable Vietnamese outposts to accommodate larger vessels, suggesting potential future military ship docking. He added that defense structures with barracks, artillery, and other military facilities are being built.
The Spratly Islands are claimed by multiple nations, including Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam, the Philippines, and China, whose nine-dash line encompasses most of the waterway. Chen believes Vietnam’s “illegal” occupation attempts could provoke similar actions from other claimants, like the Philippines, and lead to increased maritime competition with China. He also suggested that Vietnamese vessels may venture into Chinese-claimed waters or attempt to occupy unoccupied features.
China’s response to Vietnam’s activities has been less assertive than its approach to the Philippines, likely due to existing political trust between the two socialist nations. High-level exchanges have continued between the countries, with recent meetings between Xi Jinping and Vietnam’s new president, Luong Cuong, and previous visits by To Lam.
Luo Liang suggests that while it’s too early to predict the new Vietnamese leadership’s foreign policy, a radical shift in its China stance is unlikely. He also noted that China has responded to Vietnam’s actions through internal diplomatic channels, using negotiation and objection.
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Source: South China Morning Post
