MABUX Reports Continued Increase in Global Bunker Prices, Scrubber Spread Trends

By
Mfame Editor
-
22

During the 14th week, global bunker fuel prices, as tracked by MABUX, continued their moderate upward trend, reports MABUX on LinkedIn. 

Global Scrubber Spread

Scrubber Spread (SS) Trends:

  • The global price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO (MABUX Global Scrubber Spread) has continued to decrease slightly, falling below $80.00.
  • The weekly average also saw a minor decline.
  • In Rotterdam, the SS Spread increased for the first time in four weeks, surpassing the $40.00 mark, though the weekly average remained unchanged.
  • In Singapore, the SS Spread significantly increased.
  • Overall, there are indications of a potential upward trend in the SS Spread, but it remains below the $100.00 breakeven point, making VLSFO more cost-effective.

European LNG Market:

  • Europe is taking advantage of weak Asian LNG demand to increase its imports to record levels for this time of year.
  • Lower Asian demand and spot prices are leading to cargo resales to Europe.
  • Europe needs to replenish its LNG stockpiles, which were depleted by a colder-than-average winter.
  • Europe has a temporary window to secure large LNG volumes due to projected declines in China’s LNG imports.
  • European regional gas storage is currently 33.59% full.
  • The European gas benchmark, TTF, has increased slightly.

Market Differential Index

Here’s a breakdown of the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) findings at the end of Week 14:

Overall Trend:

  • The trend of gradual fuel undervaluation continues in the 380 HSFO and VLSFO segments.

380 HSFO Segment:

  • Rotterdam and Singapore shifted into the undervalued zone, meaning all four major ports (Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston) are now undervalued.
  • The weekly average MDI values increased in all ports:
    • Rotterdam: +8 points
    • Singapore: +19 points
    • Fujairah: +9 points
    • Houston: +4 points
  • Rotterdam and Singapore MDI values are close to a 100% correlation between MBP and DBP.

VLSFO Segment:

  • All four selected ports remained in the undervalued zone.
  • The weekly average MDI values increased in:
    • Rotterdam: +10 points
    • Singapore: +8 points
    • Houston: +12 points
    • Fujairah remained unchanged.

MGO LS Segment:

  • Rotterdam moved back into the overvalued zone, becoming the only overvalued port.
  • The weekly average MDI in Rotterdam rose by 10 points.
  • The other three ports remained undervalued, with the following increases:
    • Singapore: +6 points
    • Fujairah: +11 points
    • Houston: +4 points.
  • Rotterdam remained near the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP.

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Source: MABUX on LinkedIn