Rise in Aframax Shipments to Far East

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  • March 2025 Aframax Voyages to the Far East surged by 41.94% month-on-month, driven by geopolitical tensions and falling crude prices.

  • Q1 2025 Aframax activity trailed behind Q1 2024, indicating the March spike was likely tactical rather than a sustained trend.

  • U.S. tariff threats and Brent dropping below $60/bbl prompted exporters and refiners to fast-track shipments.

  • The freight market in early April showed mixed sentiment, with Suezmax staying firm, Aframax and VLCC declining, and Panamax seeing a sharp weekly rate increase.

Updated data from Signal Ocean reveals a significant spike in Aframax tanker voyages from Russia’s Pacific ports to the Far East in March 2025. A total of 44 Aframax discharges were recorded in the Far East during the month, marking a 41.94% increase from February 2025. However, this figure represents an 8.33% decrease compared to March 2024, when 48 voyages were logged.

The sharp month-over-month uptick points to a tactical end-of-quarter surge driven by evolving market dynamics and geopolitical developments. Despite the March rebound, overall activity in Q1 2025 remained slightly lower than Q1 2024, signaling that the surge was likely a short-term adjustment rather than the beginning of a sustained trend.

Key Drivers Behind March Surge

Geopolitical Pressures:

In late March, the U.S. reiterated threats of imposing secondary sanctions and tariffs (25–50%) on international buyers of Russian crude. This triggered a tactical acceleration of shipments by Russian exporters and Asian refiners attempting to secure cargoes ahead of potential trade disruptions.

Oil Market Volatility:


The Brent benchmark fell below $60/barrel following an unexpected OPEC+ decision to raise output, leading to fears of market oversupply. This price decline spurred Russian exporters to front-load shipments to capitalize on relatively higher prices before further deterioration.

Freight Market Overview – Early April 2025

VLCC Segment:

  • MEG–China rates: WS53, 7% MoM decline

  • Ras Tanura ship count: ~60 (10 below the annual average)

  • Tonne-day trend: Declining since Week 13

Suezmax Segment:

  • West Africa–Europe rates: >WS100, 17% MoM rise

  • Baltic–Med route: Steady at WS130, 24% higher YoY

  • Vessel count: Rose to 49 (up from 40 in January)

  • Tonne-days: Nearing annual average

Aframax Segment:

  • Med rates: WS160 (down 10% WoW, up 30% MoM)

  • Baltic ship count: ~21 (10 below average)

  • Med vessel availability: Below 10 benchmark

  • Tonne-days: Surged to highest level YTD

Clean Tankers (LR & MR):

  • LR2 AG Jubail: WS135, 13% weekly drop, vessel count below 8-week avg

  • MR1 Baltic–Continent: ~WS150, 20% MoM decline

  • MR2 Continent–USAC: WS145, 15% weekly drop

  • MR2 USG–Continent: WS100, down 20% weekly

  • MR1 Skikda calls: Dropped to 26

  • MR2 Amsterdam calls: Above 32, continuing upward trend

Panamax Segment:

  • Carib–USG rates: ~210 WS, up 40% weekly

  • Tonne-days: Below average, ongoing drop since March

MR Tonne-Days:
Sustained decline since the end of Week 5, further extending into Q2.

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Source: Breakwave Advisors