The Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) has released its 2025 dry bulk market outlook, indicating a shift toward a weaker supply-demand balance. This change is primarily due to increased fleet growth and a slowdown in cargo demand, influenced by geopolitical factors and economic conditions.
Supply/Demand Balance to Weaken
BIMCO forecasts that the dry bulk fleet will grow by 2.4% in 2025, with deliveries reaching approximately 32.4 million deadweight tonnes (DWT). This represents a slight decrease from the 2.6% growth in 2024.
However, the anticipated return of vessels to the Red Sea and Panama Canal could further strain the supply-demand equilibrium. If these routes resume normal operations, demand may decline by 1% in 2025, followed by a 2.5% growth in 2026. Conversely, if geopolitical tensions persist, demand could remain subdued, leading to a continued weakening of the market.
Demand Growth Slows
Global dry bulk cargo demand is projected to grow by 0.5% to 1.5% in 2024, with a further slowdown to 1% to 2% in 2025. This deceleration is attributed to several factors:
- Geopolitical Instability: Ongoing conflicts, such as the situation in the Red Sea region, have disrupted traditional shipping routes, leading to longer sailing distances and increased fuel consumption.
- Economic Factors: China’s GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.6% in 2025, impacting demand for bulk commodities like coal and iron ore.
- Energy Transition: The global shift towards renewable energy sources is reducing the demand for coal, a major dry bulk commodity.
Supply Growth Outpaces Demand
The dry bulk fleet is anticipated to grow by 2.4% in 2025, with deliveries of 32.4 million DWT. This growth rate exceeds the projected demand increase, leading to a potential oversupply in the market. The return of vessels to the Red Sea and Panama Canal could exacerbate this imbalance, further weakening the market.
Market Outlook
BIMCO’s analysis suggests that the dry bulk market will face challenges in 2025 due to the weakening supply-demand balance. Shipowners and operators may need to adapt to these conditions by optimizing fleet operations, exploring alternative routes, and closely monitoring geopolitical developments that could impact shipping dynamics.
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Source: BIMCO
