- 68 sailings cancelled across major East–West trade lanes between weeks 19 and 23, reflecting a 10% cancellation rate out of 698 scheduled.
- Most cancellations expected on the Transpacific Eastbound route (47%), followed by Asia–North Europe & Med (37%) and Transatlantic Westbound (16%).
- Schedule reliability forecasted at 90%, with some carriers like Gemini possibly reaching 98%.
- Tariffs on Chinese imports and softening demand are leading to partially loaded vessels and increased blank sailings.
Drewry’s latest Cancelled Sailings Tracker offers a snapshot of the current trends in blank sailings across the key East–West trade lanes, including the Transpacific, Transatlantic, and Asia–North Europe & Mediterranean routes. Between week 19 (5–11 May) and week 23 (2–8 June), a total of 68 sailings have been cancelled from 698 scheduled, marking a 10% cancellation rate.
Looking ahead, Drewry forecasts that 47% of upcoming cancellations will impact the Transpacific Eastbound trade, followed by Asia–North Europe & Med (37%), and Transatlantic Westbound (16%).
Gradual Improvement in Schedule Reliability Anticipated
While overall sailing reliability is projected to see modest gains, with about 90% of weekly departures expected to proceed as planned, carriers are maintaining a flexible approach. Major lines like Gemini may achieve up to 98% schedule adherence, though this remains dependent on market dynamics. An uptick in blank sailings could re-emerge if overcapacity persists, especially on the China–US trade lanes, where demand remains subdued.
Impact of Tariffs and Capacity Adjustments
The imposition of tariffs on Chinese imports continues to affect cargo flow. Many US importers have postponed or cancelled shipments in anticipation of improved trade conditions, though formal negotiations are yet to begin. As a result, several vessels on the China–US route are departing partially loaded.
Carriers are actively managing vessel capacity by blanking sailings and realigning service schedules, seeking to adjust for weakened demand while retaining route flexibility. With Southeast Asian exports expected to rise ahead of a July tariff exemption deadline, there is growing pressure on available space and timetables in the region.
Freight Rates Under Pressure Amid Market Uncertainty
As market volatility continues, freight spot rates have dropped further. Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) Composite fell by 3% week-on-week, settling at $2,091 per 40-foot container as of 1 May. Key trade lanes showed declines:
- Transpacific rates: down 2%
- Asia–Europe/Med rates: down 4%
- Transatlantic rates: down 3%
Advisory for Shippers
Given the ongoing uncertainty in global trade flows, Drewry advises shippers to remain vigilant and prepared for further disruptions and capacity adjustments in the weeks ahead. For a more detailed analysis and weekly trade-specific updates—including port waiting times at Los Angeles and Long Beach—shippers can subscribe to Drewry’s Container Capacity Weekly Insight.
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Source: Drewry
