- Sanctions surged in Q1 2025, especially targeting tankers and firms in key jurisdictions.
- GPS jamming spiked, disrupting vessel tracking with long-distance anomalies and new global hotspots.
- Trade lanes dropped sharply in March 2025 due to tariffs and preemptive shipping shifts.
Q1 2025 marked a significant shift in the maritime regulatory and geopolitical landscape. This quarter recorded the highest number of vessel sanctions since 2022 and the greatest surge in maritime company designations since early 2023. A rise in alignment across global regulatory bodies, growing geopolitical tension, and shifts in global trade patterns underscore a new era of disruption. At the same time, emerging trends in GPS jamming and deceptive shipping practices reveal vulnerabilities in maritime visibility, requiring a modernized approach to maritime risk management, according to Windward.
Sanctions on Vessels and Maritime Companies
The first quarter of 2025 saw an unprecedented spike in vessel sanctions, both from new designations and expansions of existing ones. A staggering majority of these were tankers, pointing to an intensified regulatory focus on the energy sector. Likewise, regulatory bodies globally aligned on sanctioning maritime companies at a rate not seen since early 2023, with a concentration of targeted entities operating out of Hong Kong, Seychelles, China, Russia, and the Marshall Islands. This shift signals a growing intent to clamp down on corporate enablers of maritime sanction evasion.
Escalation in GPS Jamming Threats
The quarter also brought alarming developments in GPS jamming. Vessels experiencing GPS interference were recorded “jumping” across distances as far as 6,300 kilometers, ten times higher than the previous quarter, rendering traditional vessel tracking systems nearly ineffective. Three new jamming hubs emerged during this period: Sudan in the Red Sea, Djibouti in the Gulf of Aden, and the corridor stretching from the Black Sea to the Gulf of Guinea. This sudden and extensive rise in GPS disruptions impairs navigational safety and opens the door to increased illicit maritime activity.
Evolving Jamming Patterns
Jamming signatures evolved from compact, dense areas to broader regions marked by linear patterns. These changes indicate a more deliberate and widespread application of interference, challenging conventional assumptions about the scope and nature of maritime signal disruption.
Shifting Flags and Dark Fleet Activity
The use of the Comoros flag increased by 16% in Q1 2025, echoing a similar pattern observed a year earlier. These flag changes often signal attempts to obscure ownership and bypass regulatory scrutiny. As dark fleet behavior intensifies, particularly among vessels tied to Russia and Iran, monitoring such changes becomes critical for maritime compliance efforts.
Trade Disruptions and Tariff Impacts
Global trade lanes, particularly those driven by tanker activity, saw marked disruptions in March 2025. Following a year of relative stability, a sharp decline in tanker flows signaled the impact of shifting energy tariffs. Both container and bulk goods trade also declined significantly, likely due to companies front-loading shipments in anticipation of new trade restrictions. These disruptions were most pronounced across major U.S. trade corridors, including U.S.–Mexico and U.S.–Canada routes, with policy shifts causing ripple effects across entire supply chains.
Surge in Port Activity Amid Sanctions
A notable rise in port calls to Syria—up 27% from the previous quarter—reflects the shifting geopolitical dynamics, possibly tied to a leadership change and a reassignment of commercial port leases. The diversity of vessels calling at Syrian ports also expanded, with the highest number of non-Russian affiliated vessels observed in recent years.
The Role of AI in Modern Maritime Risk Management
As maritime risk scenarios grow more complex, organizations can no longer rely solely on traditional monitoring tools. Proactive, AI-driven intelligence is now essential for identifying emerging threats before they cause regulatory or operational fallout. With 99% of sanctioned vessels in 2024 flagged as high risk before designation, AI tools have proven their value in enhancing maritime domain awareness. Organizations that embrace predictive analytics and intelligent risk management are better equipped to respond to rapidly evolving geopolitical tensions and maintain operational resilience.
Did you subscribe to our daily Newsletter?
It’s Free Click here to Subscribe!
Source: Windward
