- BIMCO reports a 9% year-on-year rise in Brazilian grain exports between January and April 2025, driven by increased Chinese demand due to high US tariffs.
- Soya bean shipments—comprising 71% of Brazil’s grain exports—are the primary driver, supported by a strong harvest.
- Brazil’s grain trade boom is bolstering tonne-mile demand for the Panamax segment, though freight rates remain under pressure.
- Prospects appear strong, especially with a favourable maize harvest forecast, though China’s domestic output goals may pose risks.
In the latest “Shipping Number of the Week” from BIMCO, Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager, highlighted a notable rise in grain exports from Brazil amid shifting global trade dynamics. Between January and April 2025, Brazilian grain shipments increased 9% year-on-year, spurred by China’s search for alternative suppliers due to increased tariffs on US imports.
Drivers Behind the Export Growth
According to Gouveia, the surge in exports has been underpinned by a 9% rise in Brazil’s soya bean harvest, as per USDA estimates. While shipments were initially slow in January due to a delayed harvest, they picked up momentum in February, leading to growing ship congestion at ports.
Soya beans continue to dominate Brazil’s grain exports, making up 71%, followed by maize at 27%. China, a major importer of Brazilian grains, accounted for 53% of Brazil’s total grain shipments and 25% of global grain imports.
Trade Shifts and Market Impact
Since March 2025, the imposition of a 125 percentage point increase in Chinese tariffs on US grain has sharply reduced US-China shipments, down 54% year-on-year. In contrast, Brazil’s grain exports to China have grown by 9%.
“The pick-up in Brazilian grain exports has been positive for tonne-mile demand in the Panamax segment, which transported 82% of cargoes in 2024. Due to their above-average sailing distances, grain shipments from Brazil account for 19% of the segment’s tonne-mile demand, despite comprising only 9% of its cargo volume. However, this has not been enough to keep the Baltic Panamax Index from falling 35% y/y so far in 2025,” said Gouveia.
Despite increased loading activity, overall Panamax freight rates remain under pressure due to reduced coal and grain volumes globally, intensifying competition among shipping segments.
Outlook for the Remainder of 2025
Looking ahead, Brazilian maize exports are expected to gain further momentum with a projected 6% year-on-year growth in harvest. The second, larger maize crop is typically harvested and exported from June, and current weather conditions are favourable.
“The outlook for Brazilian grain shipments appears largely positive for the rest of 2025, amid strong supply and the trade war between the US and China. However, China’s next grain harvests could pose a downside risk to the overall strength of global grain shipments. The country has set ambitious targets for its harvests to reduce import dependency, and if successful, it would affect import demand,” Gouveia concluded.
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Source: BIMCO
