Shipping stocks experienced a significant boost early on Monday, May 12th, 2025, following the announcement that the United States and China had agreed to a larger-than-anticipated temporary tariff reduction. This development came after what were described as “productive” trade discussions over the weekend, reports Investor’s Business Daily.
Impact of Tariffs
Alan Murphy, chief executive of Singapore-based research firm Sea-Intelligence, commented on the current uncertainty in the shipping market following the 90-day tariff reduction agreement between the U.S. and China. Speaking on Monday, Murphy noted the difficulty in making reliable predictions given the rapid policy changes. He explained that importers are now faced with a dilemma: whether to front-load volumes in anticipation of higher tariffs after the 90 days ends, or to adopt a wait-and-see approach in case tariffs are further reduced. Murphy believes that “most importers” are unsure of the best course of action in this situation.
Richard de Chazal, a macro analyst at William Blair, described the 90-day tariff deal, which extends until August 14th, as “encouraging” in a note on Monday. However, he pointed out that the specific demands from both the U.S. and China required to make these tariff reductions permanent remain unclear.
Regarding U.S. port activity, Chazal observed that “After a very sharp drop, tonnage data has been improving and is now 19% higher than a year ago, though the ship count is still 6% below last year.” He added that companies are in a state of “limbo” regarding restocking decisions, as this will depend on the scope and timing of any new trade deal before inventories are depleted, shelves become empty, and potential layoffs occur.
Meanwhile, on Thursday, Vincent Clerc, Chief Executive of global shipping giant Maersk, told analysts during the Q1 earnings call that a potential “de-escalation” in trade tensions could lead to a “catch-up effect,” resulting in a surge in demand from China once the situation resolves.
Shipping Stocks
Container liner and logistics company ZIM Integrated Shipping (ZIM) experienced a significant surge of approximately 14% during Monday’s stock market activity. Prior to this jump, ZIM’s stock had declined by 7% in May. The Transportation-Ship industry group, which includes 37 stocks tracked by IBD, has collectively seen a decline of nearly 17% in 2025, ranking it as a weak No. 169 out of 197 ranked industries.
Several domestic freight companies also saw substantial gains on Monday. Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) advanced by nearly 12%, while its peer ArcBest (ARCB) popped by 14%. Among other truckers, J.B. Hunt (JBHT) gained around 110% (this seems like a typo and likely meant 1.10% or 11.0%), and Schneider National (SNDR) advanced by 7.7%.
In the logistics sector, XPO Logistics (XPO) also saw a significant increase of 14%. Farm products exporter Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) edged up by about 2.9% on Monday.
E-commerce giant Amazon (AMZN) surged by 8%, moving above its 200-day moving average and potentially offering an early entry point for investors. Retail giants Walmart (WMT) edged up slightly and remained within a buy zone, while Target (TGT) gained 4.9%. These major retailers all rely on goods manufactured in China. Walmart is scheduled to report its fiscal Q1 results on Thursday.
Shipping Continues
Maersk’s Chief Executive Vincent Clerc stated on Thursday that the Trump tariffs and the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China are primarily impacting these two nations directly, with global volumes outside of this specific trade lane remaining largely unaffected so far.
Clerc noted that while the level of uncertainty has increased due to potentially more severe tariffs and persistent trade tensions, this uncertainty has predominantly been centered around the U.S. rather than having a widespread global impact. He indicated that continued strong global demand is reflected in the performance of stocks such as international container-freight shipper Euroseas (ESEA), which saw its shares gain nearly 8% last week, adding to a multi-month recovery. Other shipping stocks like Euroholdings (EHLD) and Navios Maritime Partners (NMM), also showing multi-month rebounds, further support this observation of sustained global demand.
Another segment of the shipping market experiencing a rebound is oil tanker fleets. Companies such as Frontline (FRO), Teekay Tankers (TNK), and International Seaways (INSW) have shown significant recent gains, potentially driven by decreasing oil prices. Historically, lower oil prices tend to lead to increased sales volumes, which in turn drives up demand and prices for oil tankers as buyers seek transportation for these larger volumes.
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Source: Investor’s Business Daily
