- 30% surge in Russian crude exports via non-G7 tankers as sanctions tighten.
- Over 80% of seaborne crude now bypasses G7-owned, insured, or flagged vessels.
- Growing reliance on the “shadow fleet” raises maritime safety and environmental risks.
Russia has significantly increased its use of non-G7-flagged tankers to export crude oil, bypassing Western sanctions and avoiding price cap enforcement. According to recent data, around 80–85% of Russia’s seaborne crude is now transported via tankers that are not flagged, insured, or owned by G7 countries. This marks a 30% surge in the use of such vessels, highlighting Russia’s growing dependence on what has become known as the “shadow fleet,” reports Platts.
Russia Boosts Crude Exports via Non-G7 Tankers
These non-G7 tankers—often aged, poorly maintained, and lightly regulated—form a complex and opaque network designed to evade monitoring. Many operate under flags of convenience or no flag at all. They frequently engage in deceptive shipping practices, such as disabling transponders, conducting ship-to-ship transfers in open waters, and concealing cargo origins. The size of this fleet has more than doubled since late 2022, with current estimates ranging between 1,100 and 1,400 vessels.
Despite multiple rounds of sanctions from the U.S., EU, and UK—targeting nearly 550 vessels in recent months—Russia’s oil exports have not only remained steady but have adapted to these constraints. In January alone, Russian seaborne crude exports averaged 2.7 million barrels per day, with the vast majority carried by non-G7 tankers. This strategic shift has allowed Moscow to maintain revenues while sidestepping the enforcement mechanisms of the G7’s $60-per-barrel price cap.
Key buyers of Russian oil—including China, India, and the UAE—continue to receive large volumes via this shadow fleet. These countries, which are not part of the G7 sanctions regime, have little incentive to scrutinize the vessels or enforce price caps, effectively enabling the trade to flourish. This geopolitical alignment undercuts Western efforts to limit Russia’s war financing and isolates enforcement within a narrower sphere of influence.
The unchecked growth of the shadow fleet carries significant risks. Many of the vessels are over 20 years old and lack proper insurance or maintenance. Their operations pose increased threats of oil spills, maritime accidents, and environmental damage, especially in congested or ecologically sensitive waters. Additionally, the widespread use of deceptive shipping practices undermines global maritime safety norms and creates enforcement blind spots.
In effect, Russia’s strategy is proving resilient. While the sanctions have displaced Russian crude flows from Western-controlled systems, they have not prevented exports altogether. This exposes the limitations of economic pressure when global enforcement is fragmented. Unless the G7 can coordinate more robust maritime oversight and pressure non-aligned nations to participate in sanctions, the shadow fleet will likely remain a durable part of Russia’s export infrastructure.
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Source: Platts
