The South Atlantic grain market experienced a significant boost in the recent trading week, with freight rates surging due to stronger cargo demand as more cargoes are being pushed out, with June being the last month of the local soybean harvest. There was also a notable shift in tonnage distribution as the ballast list thins for the upcoming week of June 16.
Market participants maintained an optimistic outlook, despite a quiet start to the trading week caused by holidays in Europe and the Middle East. Favorable fundamentals continue to support the upcoming end-of-June laycans. However, inquiries remain limited, and the rates exchanged are showing signs of volatility and uncertainty as the South Atlantic transitions out of the soybean harvest season. On June 11th, Platts assessed the 60,000 mt Santos-Qingdao Panamax route at $35.5/mt, reflecting a 3.65% increase from the previous week.
Soybean demand surges ahead of harvest season ending
Soybean cargo volumes began climbing in week 21, with 48 shipments in week 22, a seven-week high. Of the week 22 cargoes, only one was a sugar shipment, according S&P Global Commodities at Sea data June 11.
Meanwhile, shipments of soybean meal, corn/maize, sorghum, and wheat remain scarce, with limited cargoes available. Notably, while soybean meal consistently had at least one shipment in the previous six weeks, no shipments were recorded in week 22.
S&P Global Commodity Insights reported “soybean demand for near-term shipments may increase during the week starting June 2, as some Chinese sources reported improved crush margins.”
According to Commodities at Sea, shipments to China have picked up, with 48 cargoes delivered in week 22. This increase follows a steady decline observed in previous weeks. Meanwhile, shipments to the Japan-Korea-Taiwan (JKT) region have maintained a consistent, albeit brief, rise. However, only one cargo was recorded for this region in week 22, according to CAS.
In recent US-China soybean developments, S&P Global Commodity Insights said in its USA Agribulk Monthly report: ”The declining trend in shipments is evident so far in 2025, with no shipments headed to the country for other commodities after February except for soybean… despite the pause in additional tariffs by the US and the counter-tariffs by Mainland China in early May. This partly hints at the uncertainty that persists due to the ongoing tariff discussions as well as Mainland China’s reduced dependency on the US, particularly for commodities such as sorghum, corn and wheat.”
Ballast-laden spread decreases
The number of ballasting vessels has continued to rise since week 21, with data from CAS indicating that 139 vessels were ballasting while 132 vessels were laden, resulting in a spread of seven. This spread has remained relatively steady between weeks 21 and 22. However, starting from week 23, the ballast-laden spread decreased by 1, with CAS reporting 152 ballasting vessels and 146 laden vessels.
In its weekly Freight Signal Monitor, S&P Global Commodity Insights said: ”Global Panamax laden-ballast spread further deteriorated last week with increased ballast vessels seen in both the Atlantic and Pacific basin. Panamax shipments remained steady w/w with marginal positive bias seen in global agribulk shipments.”
Boost from Capesizes and End June demand strengthen market confidence
A dry bulk analyst commented, “It was an exceptionally positive week [beginning June 2] for the Capesize segment, driven by strong demand from Australia and a significant surge in paper profits that lifted rates across all dry bulk sizes. Miners, eager to conclude their fiscal year, pushed out iron ore cargoes from Australia, which was allocated to the Panamax segment, helping to retain tonnage in the Pacific.”
Another shipbroker noted, “The tonnage list has shortened rapidly for the second half of June, with many cargoes still to be covered, and this trade continues to command a premium. The recent tonnage clearout, driven by a flurry of fixtures over the past two weeks, could be a contributing factor. The outlook for the first half of July remains uncertain, trading at a discount amid the recent rally in paper rates. However, sentiment remains strong, with most market participants anticipating a steady rise in freight rates in the upcoming weeks.”
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Source: S&P Global
