The Capesize dry bulk market exhibited a steady yet nuanced performance in the recent trading week (Week 24, ending June 13, 2025), beginning with a subdued tone due to European holidays but progressively gaining traction.
Capesize
The Capesize dry bulk market saw a significant rally this week, with the Atlantic basin outperforming the Pacific. This surge was primarily driven by persistent tightness in the North Atlantic and robust demand on the C3 Brazil to China route.
- Atlantic Basin Leads the Rally: The Atlantic market demonstrated stronger performance compared to the Pacific.
- C3 Brazil to China Strength: Tight fundamentals and firm demand on the C3 Brazil to China route pushed bids and offers steadily upward. Offers for early July laycans on this route climbed to $27.00–$28.00 by Thursday. However, activity quieted down on Friday, particularly for index laycans.
- North Atlantic Firmness: The North Atlantic region remained notably strong, benefiting from a limited supply of available vessels (tight tonnage list) and healthy inquiry from charterers.
- BCI 5TC Soars: The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 5TC, a key benchmark for Capesize rates, climbed significantly throughout the week. It rose by nearly $6,000 from its Monday opening of $24,961 to close at $30,866 by week’s end.
This performance indicates strong underlying demand for Capesize vessels in the Atlantic, especially for iron ore and other bulk commodities moving from Brazil to China, coupled with a constrained vessel supply in the North Atlantic.
Panamax
The Panamax dry bulk market experienced significant rate increases this week, driven by robust demand, particularly in the Atlantic basin.
Atlantic Market Dominance and Nuances:
- Grain-Centric Demand: A strong demand push in the Atlantic was largely focused on grain cargoes, with notable support coming from both North and South America, especially for end-June arrival dates.
- Two-Tiered Trans-Atlantic Market: Despite making substantial gains, the trans-Atlantic route surprisingly developed into a two-tiered market, heavily dependent on the vessel’s delivery location. Continent positions did not command the same premium rates as West Mediterranean tonnage. This discrepancy was clearly illustrated by two fixtures:
- An 84,000-dwt vessel delivering in Gibraltar secured a rate of $21,500 for a trip via North Coast South America redelivery Taiwan.
- Another 84,000-dwt vessel delivering in North Spain agreed to a lower rate of $18,000 for the exact same trip, highlighting the considerable difference in premiums based on positioning.
Pacific Market Performance:
- Australia as Key Driver: Demand originating from Australia appeared to be the primary driver for the Pacific market this week, leading to plentiful activity.
- Well-Supported Arena: With an improving East Coast South America market, the Pacific arena remained well-supported throughout the week.
- Highlight Fixture: A standout fixture in the Pacific involved an 82,000-dwt vessel delivering in China for a trip via Australia, redelivery Singapore-Japan, achieving $13,500.
Period Activity Improves:
- The increased spot market strength also translated into improved period charter activity.
- A notable report included an 82,000-dwt vessel delivering in China agreeing to $13,000 for a 3/5 months period charter, indicating growing confidence in longer-term rates.
Supramax
The Supramax dry bulk market experienced a definite split between the two basins this week, with the Atlantic demonstrating solid performance while Asia faced growing challenges.
Atlantic Basin – A Solid Affair: The Atlantic market was notably robust, driven by stronger numbers and increased activity in both the US Gulf and South America.
- US Gulf: Tonnage remained tight, contributing to firm rates. A 58,000-dwt vessel was fixed for a trip from SW Pass (Southwest Pass, likely in the US Gulf) to Japan at $20,000.
- South America: This region also saw increased activity. A 63,000-dwt vessel was fixed delivering in Tema for a trip via North Coast South Brazil, redelivery China, at $16,500.
Asia/Pacific Basin – Growing Challenges: In contrast to the Atlantic’s positivity, the Asian market struggled.
- Limited Enquiry & Prompt Vessels: A scarcity of fresh inquiries failed to offset the increasing number of prompt (immediately available) vessels, indicating an oversupply of tonnage relative to demand.
- Lower Rates:
- A 60,000-dwt vessel was fixed for a trip from Indonesia to China in the mid-$11,000s.
- A 55,000-dwt vessel fixed delivery Indonesia for a trip redelivery West Coast Indian in the very low $13,000s.
Period Cover – A Glimmer of Upside: The only positive development in the Asian market appeared to be an uptick in period cover activity. A newbuilding 64,000-dwt vessel was reported fixed ex yard Cebu for one year’s trading at $13,000. This suggests some owners are willing to lock in rates for longer durations despite current spot market weakness in the region.
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Source: Baltic Exchange
