- Tensions have resurfaced over fears that Iran might block the Strait of Hormuz after Israeli airstrikes.
- Analysts widely agree that a full closure is improbable due to logistical constraints and geopolitical consequences.
- China’s economic influence and reliance on Iranian oil further dissuade such a move, as it could backfire on Tehran itself.
Following a new wave of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, global concerns have re-emerged over a potential Iranian retaliation by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical oil shipping lanes. Despite the rising geopolitical tensions, industry analysts and energy experts argue that a full-scale closure of the strait remains highly unlikely, as reported by CNBC.
Global Oil Flows at Stake
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but vital maritime corridor between Iran, Oman, and the UAE, handles around 20 million barrels of oil daily—nearly one-fifth of global oil shipments. Any disruption would severely impact global energy markets, potentially spiking oil prices and disrupting international trade routes.
Analysts Say Closure is Impractical and Self-Defeating
Experts stress that a closure is both strategically and physically implausible. “There is no net benefit to Iran in impeding oil traffic,” said Ellen Wald, President of Transversal Consulting. She pointed out that Iran’s own oil infrastructure hasn’t been targeted, and retaliatory actions could provoke a dangerous escalation.
Energy Outlook Advisors’ Anas Alhajji added that most of the strait lies outside Iranian jurisdiction and is too wide to be effectively sealed off. “It’s just not feasible,” he noted, emphasizing that Iran would suffer more than its rivals if it disrupts the channel.
China’s Influence May Act as a Deterrent
Iran’s key oil customer and trade partner, China, would be severely impacted by any closure. China accounts for over 75% of Iranian oil exports. Wald noted, “China will bring the full weight of its economic influence to prevent such a move, as rising oil prices and disrupted flows harm its interests.”
Historical Threats, No Action Yet
While Iran has previously threatened to close the strait—in 2018 after the U.S. pulled out of the nuclear deal, and again in 2011–2012—such threats have never materialized. Analysts believe a blockade would be a “last resort,” only likely in the event of a full-scale U.S.–Iran military confrontation.
Military Presence and Alternative Routes Diminish Risk
The presence of the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain further complicates Iran’s ability to mount a sustained blockade. Even if minor disruptions occur, tankers could reroute through waters controlled by the UAE and Oman, limiting the scope of any interference.
Partial Disruptions Still a Possibility
While a total closure remains far-fetched, experts acknowledge that Iran might still try to disrupt traffic through other means, such as laying naval mines or launching limited attacks on tankers.
Oil Prices React to Unrest
Following the Israeli airstrikes, crude prices spiked—Brent crude rose by 6.5% to $73.88 per barrel, while WTI jumped 6.7% to $72.57—driven by speculative fears around energy supply risks.
Extreme Scenario, But Not Off the Table
Despite consensus on the improbability of a full shutdown, some observers caution against completely ruling it out. “This is an extreme scenario, but we are in an extreme situation,” said Amena Bakr of Kpler. “It’s unlikely, but it must be considered.”
As the situation unfolds, global energy markets remain on edge, watching both diplomatic and military developments closely for any sign of escalation.
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Source: CNBC
