- Risks to tankers are complex.
- Prices are firming, market anticipates risk.
- Vessels in area should prepare for loss of GPS.
As the conflict between Israel and Iran continued into a sixth day, vessels are increasingly waiting for instructions or at least a clearer security situation before going through the Strait of Hormuz, even though credible threats to tankers are yet to materialize, reports Platts.
Ships Anchor in Caution Near Hormuz
The daily average number of unladen tankers destined for the eight Middle Eastern countries in the Persian Gulf with oil export facilities, including Saudi Arabia, has averaged 712 so far in the week beginning June 15, the lowest since at least 2021 when adjusted for seasonality, according to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea.
“There are many, many vessels awaiting orders or are in ballast waiting for a clearer situation before they actually enter the Arabian Gulf,” Ian Wilkinson, an analyst at port agency Inchcape, said during a webinar June 18. Vessels are probably waiting outside the Gulf until they are called in, he said.
Platts reported earlier June 18 that QatarEnergy has instructed LNG vessels to stay outside of the Strait of Hormuz until a day before loading cargoes, citing a source familiar with the matter.
The risk profile for merchant shipping is nuanced. The Strait of Hormuz has never been closed and the Iranian foreign minister has said that Iran does not want any war to expand. Such a scenario could harm the interests of Middle Eastern producers, including itself, and major oil consumers like China and the US. However, Iran has in the past arrested tankers, and greater risk is being priced in.
“The reality is that the world, and a lot of the traders and charterers, are already factoring in conflict,” Wilkinson said. They are already expecting there to be disruption in one market or another, he added.
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Source: Platts
