Russia’s deputy foreign minister has issued a stern warning against any potential U.S. attack on Iran, stating that such a move would “radically destabilize the entire situation” in the Middle East. This warning comes amidst the continuing escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, which has seen both sides conducting strikes.
Mixed Messages
The conflict between Israel and Iran, which has erupted in the past week, has drawn international attention, with Russia advising against direct U.S. involvement. This comes amidst strong rhetoric from President Donald Trump and a defiant stance from Iran.
Russia’s Stance: Sergei Ryabkov, a Russian official, stated on Wednesday that Russia has cautioned the U.S. against direct military intervention in the conflict. Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, further elaborated that any U.S. military action “would be a perilous step with truly unpredictable negative consequences.” Despite having a strategic partnership with Iran, Russia has not provided military support to Tehran in the face of Israeli airstrikes. Instead, Russian President Vladimir Putin has positioned himself as a potential mediator, while condemning Israel’s actions as a “clear violation of the UN Charter.”
U.S. Involvement and Iran’s Response: Ryabkov’s comments followed Donald Trump’s demand for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and his public consideration of authorizing U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear program. In response, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected Trump’s demand on Wednesday, warning that the U.S. would suffer “irreparable damage” if it were to join the war.
Mixed Messages on Diplomacy: Both Iran and the U.S. have sent mixed signals regarding their openness to a peaceful resolution.
- Iran’s Position: Iran’s United Nations Mission released a statement on Wednesday, declaring that “Iran does NOT negotiate under duress, shall NOT accept peace under duress, and certainly NOT with a has-been warmonger clinging to relevance.” This was in response to Trump’s suggestion that Iran had proposed a meeting at the White House. However, hours later, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi asserted that Iran “remains [s] committed to diplomacy,” with the sole exception of its dealings with Israel. Iran maintains that its military actions against Israel since last Friday’s attack are in “self-defense.” Iranian officials are scheduled to meet with their French, German, and British counterparts in Geneva, indicating a willingness for diplomatic engagement on certain fronts.
- U.S. Position: While Trump has publicly considered striking Iran, the White House has also stated that there is a “substantial” chance that negotiations can achieve U.S. and Israeli demands on Iran’s nuclear program. Trump has indicated he will make a final decision on U.S. military involvement within two weeks, signaling a short diplomatic window.
The situation remains highly fluid, with diplomatic overtures seemingly clashing with heightened military rhetoric and actions.
Big Powers Mediate
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, which has claimed hundreds of lives in Iran and dozens in Israel within a week, has prompted Russia to engage diplomatically, though with a cautious approach to direct military involvement.
Trump Rejects Putin’s Mediation Offer: Earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump indicated an openness to Russian mediation in the Middle East. However, following a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he declined Putin’s offer. Trump stated, “I said, ‘Do me a favor. Mediate your own. Let’s mediate Russia first.’ I said, ‘Vladimir, let’s mediate Russia first. You can worry about [this] later.”
Putin’s Perspective on Mediation: Despite Trump’s rejection, Putin views the situation as a “delicate issue” where “a solution could be found.” Speaking on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on Wednesday, Putin confirmed that he has shared proposals for mediation with Iran, Israel, and the U.S. He emphasized, “We are not imposing anything on anyone; we are simply talking about how we see a possible way out of the situation. But the decision, of course, is up to the political leadership of all these countries, primarily Iran and Israel.”
Russia’s Limited Military Intervention: While a prominent Russian general controversially claimed “World War III” had begun after Israel’s initial attack and called for troop mobilization, experts largely agree that Russia is unlikely to intervene militarily. This assessment is based on several factors:
- Strategic Partnership, Not Mutual Defense: Earlier this year, Russia and Iran deepened their ties with a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement. This pact promises greater economic and military cooperation, including defense and security, but crucially does not include a mutual defense clause. This means Russia is not formally obligated to defend Iran in the event of an attack.
- Ukraine War Strain: As Middle East analyst Marianna Belenkaya noted, Russia is currently enmeshed in a resource-draining war with Ukraine. Direct military intervention in the Middle East would further stretch its resources.
- Desire for Improved U.S. Relations: Belenkaya also suggested that Russia is “trying to restore or improve relations with Washington,” making direct military support to Iran less likely.
- Mediator Role Preference: Hanna Notte, a Russia and Middle East expert, indicated that Russia is more likely to focus on trying to assume the role of a mediator and advocating for de-escalation through international bodies. Russia has historically maintained a delicate balancing act with both Israel and Iran.
While some “behind-the-scenes involvement can’t be ruled out entirely,” as Belenkaya suggests, Russia’s current strategy appears to prioritize diplomatic engagement and de-escalation efforts rather than direct military entanglement in the escalating conflict.
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Source: Time
