- BIMCO projects a stable overall demand outlook for container shipping through 2026, despite trade policy uncertainties.
- North American import growth is expected to slow, averaging just 1.6% annually due to early front-loading and rising tariffs.
- Europe and Mediterranean regions show stronger prospects, supported by improved economic indicators.
- Ship demand may decline if Red Sea and Suez Canal routes normalize, weakening the supply-demand balance in late 2025 and into 2026.
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. trade policies, the container shipping sector is expected to maintain a stable demand outlook over the coming years. BIMCO projects only a slight weakening in the supply-demand balance through 2025 and 2026, excluding the impact of disruptions in Red Sea and Suez Canal routes. However, global economic uncertainties persist, with the IMF lowering its growth forecast, notably due to reduced expectations for North America amid rising U.S. import tariffs, according to a recent analysis by BIMCO.
Shifting Regional Trends and Demand Outlook in Container Shipping
According to BIMCO, cargo volumes in the container shipping sector grew by 5.1% year-over-year during the first four months of the year, driven in part by U.S. importers front-loading shipments to avoid potential tariff increases later in the year. While this contributed to a surge in volumes, growth in four out of seven global regions outpaced the North American market.
Looking ahead, BIMCO has revised its forecast for North American imports, expecting slower activity in the latter half of 2025 following the early front-loading. The updated projection now estimates an average annual growth rate of 1.6% for North American imports during 2025–2026—the lowest among all regions.
In contrast, the outlook for Europe and the Mediterranean has improved. BIMCO raised its 2025 growth forecast for the region, noting a 7.3% rise in volumes during the first four months of the year. This trend is supported by improving economic indicators, including lower inflation, falling interest rates, reduced unemployment, and a stronger euro.
Despite these regional shifts, overall demand remains uncertain. BIMCO highlights that a return to normal shipping patterns through the Red Sea and Suez Canal would reduce ship demand by an estimated 10%. As such, the supply-demand balance is expected to weaken in the second half of 2025, with a corresponding decline in freight rates. This trend is projected to continue into 2026, though to a lesser extent.
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Source: BIMCO
