Sea‑Intelligence reveals that weekly container capacity fluctuation on the Asia–North America West Coast (NAWC) trade has more than tripled since 2012, driven by blank sailings, schedule shifts, and vessel size inconsistencies.
Asia-NAWC capacity volatility more than triples
Over the past three years, capacity volatility—measured using the 52-week moving average of absolute weekly changes—has remained approximately 250–300% higher than 2012 levels, with some weeks nearly 400% above baseline. Notably, this trend is consistent even when adjusted relative to total capacity, confirming that volatility is systemic rather than a result of occasional spikes.
Importantly, both typically stable weeks (25th percentile) and peak volatility weeks (75th percentile) are on the rise. This indicates that the Asia‑NAWC route experiences unpredictability not just occasionally, but almost as a norm—making weekly capacity levels increasingly erratic.
This sustained instability undermines the balance in weekly supply and demand, complicating spot-rate dynamics and posing operational challenges for shippers and carriers alike. With supply fluctuations now a structural reality, stakeholders must bolster contingency planning and flexibility to navigate an increasingly capricious trade lane.
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Source: Sea-Intelligence
