The dry bulk shipping industry is navigating a challenging landscape in 2025, as revealed in Drewry’s latest Dry Bulk Shipping Financial Insight – July 2025. The sector faces mounting pressure from geopolitical tensions, global economic uncertainty, and weakening freight rates—factors that are weighing down earnings and reshaping asset strategies.
Equity Index Performance and Market Sentiment
The Drewry Dry Bulk Equity Index showed significant volatility in the first half of 2025, with a steep drop during Liberation Day, followed by a recovery that pushed the index up 5.3% year-to-date (YTD) as of July 2. However, this modest gain still lags behind the broader S\&P 500, which has risen 5.8% over the same period. The market rally was largely supported by a truce in the tariff war.
Leading the equity performance were Pacific Basin and Star Bulk, posting YTD gains of 23.7% and 20.0%, respectively, boosted by share buybacks and major investor interest. In contrast, Diana Shipping suffered a 22.4% YTD loss, while Golden Ocean declined after being acquired by CMB.Tech at below NAV levels, with delisting expected post-merger.
Despite scattered stock gains, overall sentiment remains cautious. Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) rates in 1H25 contracted by 23.8% year-over-year, with Capesize and Panamax vessels experiencing the steepest drops at 56.2% and 44.9%, respectively. The Supramax segment stood out as the only positive performer, recording a 10.8% rise due to tight vessel supply on specific routes.
Asset Prices and Fleet Strategy
Second-hand vessel prices have come under pressure, reflecting subdued market confidence. Resale prices for Handysize, Panamax, and Supramax vessels have fallen by 6.9%, 3.9%, and 2.8% YTD, respectively. Capesize values remained relatively stable, declining only 0.6%, thanks to a smaller orderbook-to-fleet ratio.
Companies have responded with a focus on fleet renewal. DS Norden led the way by selling 14 vessels and placing orders for seven newbuilds in 2025. Other major players like Star Bulk, Pacific Basin, and Golden Ocean also engaged in asset rebalancing, with vessel sales but no newbuild orders—many having already expanded their fleets in 2024.
Financial Outlook and Growth Concerns
Most dry bulk operators under Drewry’s coverage project a weaker financial year in 2025 compared to 2024. Fleet growth has accelerated, particularly in the Ultramax and Kamsarmax segments, intensifying rate pressure amid softening demand. DS Norden notably revised its net income forecast upward from USD 20–100 million to USD 50–130 million after realizing USD 45 million in gains from vessel sales in Q1.
The dry bulk sector is currently in a correction phase, recalibrating after years of post-pandemic trade imbalance and surging demand. With global trade growth decelerating, operators are bracing for a prolonged period of cost control, asset optimization, and selective investment.
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Source: Drewry
