- Sudanese crude exports have rebounded to 11 million barrels in June after disruptions caused by civil conflict, supporting Aframax and Suezmax demand.
- VLCC freight rates on the MEG–China route and broader dirty tanker indices have declined, pressured by rising vessel availability and seasonal trends.
- Clean tanker segments show mixed signals, with declining MR1 and LR2 rates, while Panamax and USG–Continent MR2 routes trend upward.
Sudan’s ongoing internal conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has deeply affected oil exports routed through the Bashayer terminal. Although most of the crude—primarily Dar Blend and Nile Blend—is produced in South Sudan, it must be transported through Sudan’s Red Sea port infrastructure. In April 2025, exports plummeted to just 2 million barrels due to suspected pipeline disruptions and operational uncertainty. However, recovery signs emerged with volumes rising to 7 million barrels in May and reaching 11 million in June, according to Breakwave Advisors.
Export Recovery Driven by Technical Repairs, Not Political Resolution
This recovery has been fueled primarily by successful pipeline repairs, enabling a steady flow of crude from South Sudan. The Bashayer and PLOC terminals now handle the bulk of exports—53% and 35%, respectively. Despite the lack of a formal ceasefire or government unity, the emergence of a functional operational status quo has allowed crude flows to continue. The SAF currently controls Port Sudan and the vital Bashayer terminal, while the RSF holds large swaths of central and western Sudan, including parts of Khartoum and Darfur.
Tanker Demand Boosted by Sudanese Crude Activity
The increase in Sudanese exports is positively impacting dirty tanker demand, especially in the Aframax (59%) and Suezmax (42%) segments. Most of the crude is shipped to the United Arab Emirates (41%, largely to Fujairah) and Malaysia (24%, mainly to Tanjung Bin), indicating renewed momentum in regional crude movement.
Freight Market Adjusts After Iran–Israel Tension Eases
Broader tanker markets are showing a shift toward normalization following volatility driven by Iran–Israel tensions. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) is down 15% year-on-year. VLCC rates on the MEG–China route dropped 11% week-on-week to WS 49, though they remain 5% higher than last month. Suezmax rates on West Africa–Europe routes are stable at WS 85, while Baltic–Mediterranean Suezmax rates dipped to WS 95.
Aframax and Clean Tanker Segments Reflect Seasonal Weakness
Aframax rates in the Mediterranean have softened below WS 135, tracking typical seasonal trends. Clean tanker markets also show bearish signs—particularly in the LR2 segment on the AG route, where rates fell 22% week-on-week to WS 130 after hitting yearly highs. MR1 rates on the Baltic–Continent route declined to WS 120, and MR2 rates on Continent–USAC fell to WS 100. However, the MR2 USG–Continent route bucked the trend, with rates rising above WS 200.
Rising Vessel Availability Adds Downward Pressure
The availability of VLCCs in the Arabian Gulf has surged to 96—23 above the yearly average—intensifying competition and dragging rates lower. Conversely, Suezmax availability in West Africa remains tighter than average, while Aframax tonnage in the Baltic has stayed consistently below the 10-vessel benchmark for nearly ten weeks.
Clean Tanker Supply Rises in Key Hubs
The clean tanker segment saw an increase in vessel availability toward the end of June. LR2 counts in the Arabian Gulf reached nearly 14, while MR2 availability in Amsterdam rose to around 60—both above their annual averages. MR1 availability in Skikda stayed slightly above average following a spike in Week 19.
Tonne-Days Reveal Mixed Demand Signals
Dirty tonne-day growth remains below last year’s pace in the VLCC and Suezmax sectors, while Aframax activity continues to trend above average despite a recent decline from its Week 17 peak. In clean tankers, MR1 tonne-days have fallen sharply since Week 15, while the MR2 segment remains firmer. Panamax tonne-days also weakened, reaching their lowest level of the year.
Outlook Remains Fragile Amid Political Uncertainty
Although Sudan’s crude flows have resumed, the broader geopolitical situation remains volatile, with no peace agreement in place. However, the current operational stability, if maintained, could help sustain short-term export viability and regional tanker demand, particularly in the Aframax segment. Meanwhile, global tanker markets will continue to navigate seasonal patterns and fluctuations in fleet availability.
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Source: Breakwave Advisors
