In the first half of July 2025, the global crude tanker market experienced mixed signals across major vessel segments. While VLCCs saw a temporary rate boost driven by geopolitical developments and program delays, the Suezmax market displayed tightness in West Africa and the Mediterranean due to active demand.
Meanwhile, Aframax rates softened in the North Sea but remained steady in the Mediterranean. Time charter rates across all segments held firm, and VLCC fixing activity increased despite looming concerns about oversupply.
VLCC: Geopolitical Tensions Offer Temporary Boost
VLCC rates firmed slightly last week, with MEG/East routes improving from WS 50 to the mid-WS 50s. The move was influenced by fears of tighter US sanctions on Russia, increased OPEC production, and MEG program delays. However, President Trump’s decision to postpone further sanctions for 50 days and the absence of early August Saudi stems have weakened confidence.
Tonnage remains ample, and the West/East arbitrage is still closed. Even though the Atlantic basin is slightly tighter, it has not translated into significant pressure on rates.
-
VLCC Spot Rates (WS):
-
MEG/Japan: 52 (+4.5)
-
MEG/Singapore: 54 (+4)
-
WAF/FEAST: 55 (+2.5)
-
MEG/West: 30 (+1.5)
-
Suezmax: West Africa Tightens, Med Firms, USG Soften
The West Africa Suezmax list has thinned rapidly, with many cargoes fixed for early August. Approximately 15–28 million barrels are estimated to have been covered, keeping charterers alert for prompt positions.
In the Mediterranean and Black Sea, rates are firming with TD6 at WS 92.5 and a prompt CPC replacement cargo fixing at WS 97.5. The US Gulf, however, lags behind, with Aframax weakness likely absorbing remaining demand.
-
Suezmax Spot Rates (WS):
-
WAF/USAC: 80 (+7.5)
-
Sidi Kerir/W Med: 87.5 (+5)
-
Aframax: North Sea Soft, Med Holds Firm
The North Sea Aframax segment continues to soften under pressure from relets and competition from larger vessels. Limited market activity and a weak US Gulf make the Mediterranean the only potential bright spot.
In the Mediterranean, Libya-related end-month cargoes are supporting sideways movement around WS 130. Tonnage with strong trading histories is limited, potentially opening room for upside if demand rises.
-
Aframax Spot Rates (WS):
-
N. Afr/Euromed: 130 (+2.5)
-
UK/Cont: 115 (–5)
-
Caribs/USG: 130 (–15)
-
Time Charter Rates: Holding Steady
No changes were observed in 1-year time charter rates this week, as owners and charterers monitor spot market trends.
-
1-Year T/C Rates (USD/day):
-
VLCC (Modern): $51,500
-
Suezmax (Modern): $35,000
-
Aframax (Modern): $28,000
-
VLCC Activity Overview:
-
Fixtures last week: 79 vessels (+18 vs. previous week)
-
Available in MEG (next 30 days): 140 vessels
The crude tanker market continues to be influenced by a mix of regional tightness, political uncertainty, and tonnage dynamics. While VLCCs gained briefly, stability depends on sustained demand. The Suezmax segment appears strongest, especially in WAF and the Med. Aframaxes remain mixed with summer softness in the North. Market participants now await further geopolitical developments and August program clarity to set direction.
Did you subscribe to our Daily newsletter?
It’s Free! Click here to Subscribe!
Source: FEARNLEYS
