- US importers are expected to delay non-urgent shipments amid uncertainty over 30% tariffs on imports from the EU and Mexico.
- A short-term decline in import volumes is likely, especially from Asia, while shipping rates continue to drop.
- If tariffs are enforced beyond August, long-term effects may include reduced inventory and cautious trade strategies.
With the announcement of 30% tariffs on imports from the EU and Mexico, shipping industry observers predict a familiar “wait-and-see” strategy—similar to reactions following US President Donald Trump’s earlier Liberation Day tariffs. Lars Jensen, President of Vespucci Maritime, forecasts that from 1 August, many non-essential cargo orders will likely be paused in anticipation of potential adjustments or reversals in the tariff policy, according to ICIS.
Short-Term Dip in Cargo Demand
Jensen expects a temporary decline in import volumes across all trade lanes to the US. This pullback is fueled by hopes that the newly proposed tariffs will either be rolled back or reduced before they become law. Legally, the recent notifications sent to trading partners remain non-binding until supported by either an executive order or congressional legislation.
Awaiting Legal Finalisation
At present, the only binding policy remains the Liberation Day executive order, which laid out reciprocal tariff structures and delayed enforcement until 1 August. Should the new tariff levels remain in place after that date, Jensen believes importers will be compelled to resume shipments and absorb the increased costs.
Long-Term Implications on Demand and Inventory
If the tariffs are upheld, US import demand is expected to stabilize at just enough levels to meet baseline needs—possibly even slightly below. This may trigger a drawdown on existing inventories to manage the shortfall in supply.
Trade War Already Affecting Volumes
The trade war’s impact is already visible. Although Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL), a subsidiary of Cosco, reported a global cargo volume increase of 4.4% in Q2, regional data reveal contrasting trends: a 4.3% decline in Pacific volumes versus a 20.5% surge in Atlantic trade.
Declining Shipping Rates and Sector Relevance
Container shipping rates from East Asia and China to the US continue to fall, driven by weak demand and the tapering off of pre-tariff front-loading. This trend is critical for the chemical industry, where many polymers like polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), as well as titanium dioxide (TiO₂), are transported via containers. Additionally, liquid chemicals are moved using isotanks, further tying container shipping trends to the sector’s logistics.
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Source: ICIS
