After a strong surge in 2024, global shipbuilding activity has dramatically reversed course in 2025. According to Xclusiv Shipbrokers, the number of new dry bulk and tanker ship contracts has plummeted across all major shipbuilding nations, especially in China.
While geopolitical tensions and U.S. trade measures have played a role, the primary forces behind the drop appear to be economic uncertainty, soft freight markets, and a strategic pause by shipowners.The sharp decline reflects a cautious industry re-evaluating its appetite for expansion amid shifting global conditions.
Dry Bulk Orders Crash: From Surge to Standstill
The dry bulk sector has witnessed a staggering 82% drop in newbuilding contracts year-on-year. In H1 2024, a total of 422 contracts were signed globally, with Chinese yards dominating at 314 vessels (74%), followed by Japan at 95 (23%). However, by H1 2025, global bulker orders had collapsed to just 76, with China securing 41 (54%) and Japan 32 (42%).
For perspective, China alone had 101 bulker contracts in June 2024, more than twice its entire total in the first six months of 2025. These figures illustrate not just a slowdown, but an abrupt halt in dry bulk ordering, with all major players stepping back simultaneously.
Tanker Newbuildings Mirror the Bulk Sector’s Downturn
The tanker market has followed a nearly identical trajectory. In H1 2024, there were 486 global tanker orders, with China accounting for 360 (74%), and South Korea for 70 (15%). By H1 2025, total tanker orders had dropped to 102, with China’s share falling to 49 (48%)—an 86% year-on-year decrease.
This widespread decline suggests that the downturn is systemic and not isolated to a particular region or sector. Shipowners appear hesitant to invest in new tonnage amid rising costs, lower demand, and an unclear regulatory outlook.
Monthly Trends Reveal Accelerating Pullback
The collapse in orders is especially visible in the month-by-month data. Chinese bulker contracts in Q1 2025 totaled just 11, followed by 30 in Q2—far below 2024’s monthly averages. The tanker sector saw an even steeper fall, from 38 contracts in Q1 to only 11 in Q2.
These figures are not seasonal dips but part of a consistent global contraction. The data across all shipbuilding nations reflect a synchronized pullback, with both dry bulk and tanker orders showing over 80% year-on-year declines in the first six months.
Multiple Global Factors Behind the Retreat
While U.S. trade measures introduced in 2025 have added complications, especially for Chinese yards, the broader forces behind the decline are macroeconomic and strategic. Global trade remains uncertain, freight rates are under pressure, and newbuilding prices remain high. In addition, many shipowners may be holding back in anticipation of future regulations or waiting for further clarity on alternative fuels, decarbonization mandates, and emerging technologies.
The slowdown in China, while sharp, mirrors patterns in Japan, South Korea, and other shipbuilding nations. This indicates a global mindset shift among owners toward caution and risk management in 2025.
The dramatic contraction in shipbuilding orders in 2025 marks a clear pause in global fleet expansion. With both dry bulk and tanker markets experiencing steep declines, and even dominant shipbuilding nations like China and Japan pulling back, it is evident that this is not a temporary blip. Rather, it reflects deep-rooted concerns about trade dynamics, regulatory changes, and long-term vessel economics. As the industry steps back to reassess, 2025 may be remembered as the year the shipping world collectively hit the brakes.
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Source: SAFETY4SEA
