- Gemini schedule reliability improved from 60% in February to nearly 90% in June, outperforming other major alliances.
- Performance was impacted by ongoing congestion at key European and Asian ports.
- Strategic use of less congested hubs like Rotterdam and Bremerhaven has supported reliability.
- Cost efficiency will be a key measure of success, with Q2 results expected to provide more clarity.
The Gemini Cooperation, introduced by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd in February, was designed to deliver a flexible, interconnected ocean network with industry-leading reliability. With the partnership now six months in operation, an evaluation of its performance is emerging, as highlighted in a report by Drewry.
Improved Performance in the First Six Months
Since the launch of Gemini operations in February, on-time arrival performance has improved significantly. Reliability started at around 60% in the first month and climbed steadily to just under 90% by June, according to Drewry’s Container Capacity Insight. While this still means that 10% of vessels arrive more than 24 hours late, the improvement is notable compared to the industry’s typical performance levels. It is worth noting that these figures apply only to mainline services and do not account for transhipment operations.
In June, the average on-time arrival rate for Gemini vessels on key transpacific and Asia–Europe routes was at least double that of vessels in the Ocean Alliance and Premier Alliance. Drewry noted that overall reliability across all three alliances could have been even higher if not for ongoing congestion at major European and Asian ports. Despite these challenges, the Gemini network delivered a strong start in its first months of service.
Port congestion remains a key factor influencing schedule performance. A closer look at Drewry’s analysis shows that vessels calling at congested ports experienced lower reliability than those calling at less congested facilities. This is especially significant for the Gemini network, which relies heavily on a hub-and-spoke model with fewer mainline ports, making consistent schedule performance at transhipment hubs critical to its overall success.
Impact of Port Congestion on Network Reliability
For shippers in Antwerp, however, 90% reliability is still out of reach, as the port continues to face congestion. Fortunately for Gemini, Antwerp is not part of its leading transhipment network, which instead uses less congested hubs such as Rotterdam, Bremerhaven, and Tanger Med. The reliability of container services depends not only on how carriers manage their vessels but also on how ports handle traffic and berthing slots. In Gemini’s case, both Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd operate container terminals, giving them the ability to coordinate vessel and terminal operations more effectively.
Even so, when congestion at a port reaches severe levels, operational optimisation has its limits, and schedule reliability inevitably declines. This raises the question of how performance might suffer if a highly congested port were to become a key transhipment hub for the alliance.
Looking beyond reliability, Gemini’s long-term success will also be judged on cost efficiency. In Drewry’s view, for the hub-and-spoke concept to be deemed successful, unit operating costs per TEU should remain the same or increase only marginally. The first-quarter results announced by Hapag-Lloyd in May covered just one month of Gemini operations, offering no clear picture of cost performance. The carrier’s second-quarter results, set for release on August 14, will be closely watched by Drewry and industry stakeholders to assess the cost competitiveness of the new network.
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Source: Drewry
