- Russia’s seaborne crude exports dropped to their lowest level since March, with reduced shipments to China and higher flows to India.
- EU’s upcoming ban on refined products and potential U.S. secondary tariffs are creating uncertainty for Indian refiners.
- ESPO Blend crude shipments from Kozmino port increased in July, mainly bound for China.
- Russian product exports fell 11% month on month, with gasoil shipments to Brazil leading the decline.
Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports dropped to a five-month low in July as shipments to China slowed due to refinery maintenance, while volumes to India saw a slight increase. The decline came amid tighter measures by the EU and US targeting crude buyers. Data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea highlighted that Russian-origin crude liftings averaged 3.46 million b/d in July, the lowest since March.
Trade Shifts and Sanctions Impact on Russian Crude and Product Flows
The European Union’s July 18 decision to ban imports of refined products derived from Russian oil has added uncertainty to India’s position as the leading buyer of Russian Urals crude, a role it assumed after the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022. Although the ban will take effect in January next year, U.S. President Donald Trump recently stated that Washington would “substantially” raise tariffs on Indian exports to the U.S. in response to India’s large-scale purchases of Russian crude. In reaction, Indian refiners have slowed Russian import agreements and are working to diversify their supply sources while awaiting clarity on potential secondary sanctions.
According to market sources, Indian refiners are exercising caution in Russian crude purchases despite the government granting them flexibility to make commercially viable decisions. Data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea shows that Russian ESPO Blend crude shipments from Kozmino port in July rose to 40 vessels from 35 in June, following the completion of maintenance work. Of these, 35 were destined for China, three for India, and one for Singapore. Chinese demand for July-loading ESPO remained steady, with traded prices holding firm at premiums of $2 to low $2s/b over ICE September Brent crude futures, DES Shandong. However, buying activity was slow to start, partly due to thin margins at China’s independent refineries.
In the products market, Russian seaborne refined product exports fell 11% month on month in July to 2.10 million b/d, the lowest since August 2024. The decline was led by reduced gasoil shipments to Brazil, which dropped 29% year on year to 96,693 b/d. Analysts noted that proposed U.S. secondary tariffs of up to 100% on countries buying Russian products could disrupt Brazil’s sourcing options. Meanwhile, product exports to Turkey rose 4% month on month to 504,932 b/d. Russian gasoline exports have been falling since the start of the year, a trend reinforced by the government’s July 28 temporary export ban—set to remain in place until August 31—to safeguard domestic supply.
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Source: S&P Global
