- Spot fixtures in the Baltic/Black Sea have collapsed, with YTD Handy volumes down ~5% compared with 2024.
- The Mediterranean remains the key Handy market (>50% of spot activity) with volatile earnings, while UKC performance lags.
- Only 6% of Handies on order; ageing fleet (>40% above 20 years by 2027) may provide upside, though MR encroachment remains a major headwind.
The Handy tanker segment continues its structural decline, a trend accelerated since the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Spot fixtures in the Baltic and Black Sea, which once represented a third of total activity, have fallen to under 10% annually since 2023. YTD 2025, total Handy volumes (clean + dirty) are down ~5% from 2024, with spot fixture counts also lower—though underreporting linked to dark fleet activity may distort totals.
The Mediterranean accounts for over half of global Handy spot activity, making it the key benchmark region. TC6 earnings have fallen significantly from 2024 but are now broadly in line with the 10-year average. UKC Handies continue to underperform, with MR substitution adding persistent pressure. Clean tonne miles have dropped by 17% YTD, while dirty tonne miles show a more modest 3% decline, according to Gibson.
Fleet & Orderbook
Despite soft demand, the Handy orderbook is modest at just 6% of the fleet. However, 75% of vessels are now over 15 years old, and 41% are above 20. If scrapping trends persist, more than half the fleet will be 20+ years old by 2027. Given that key charterers are European majors and commodity traders, the ageing profile may tighten effective supply, particularly as vetting policies adjust to reflect market realities.
In contrast, the MR orderbook is significantly larger at 18%, with substantial deliveries due in the coming two years. A weaker MR market could see further Handy displacement, especially as larger stems shift into MR parcels.
Regional Crude Market Developments
East
The AG crude market began the week with subdued activity, though Owners resisted softer offers to maintain sentiment. With global holidays limiting fixtures, rates have stabilised: AG/China assessed at ws 55.5, AG/USG at ws 34. Suezmax demand remains weak, though Basrah/West is at ~140,000mt x ws 52.5 and East runs holding ~130,000mt x ws 97.5.
West Africa
VLCC activity was steady but limited, with WAF/East assessed at ws 54.5. Suezmaxes faced pressure as VLCCs absorbed stems, leaving TD20 likely to test below ws 110 next week.
Mediterranean
Suezmax TD6 held at ws 130, with Libya/East estimated near $4.8m for Ningbo. Aframax rates softened slightly, with cross-Med down from mid ws 150s to ws 145–150 amid thin volumes.
US Gulf/Latin America
USG VLCCs saw brief upward momentum but enquiry slowed, keeping rates flat: USG/China at $7.3m, Brazil/East at ws 53.5.
North Sea
Market stability persisted, with cross-North Sea assessed at ws 130. Owners consider shifting tonnage south amid balanced lists.
Clean Tanker Developments
East
LR2 activity was strong, with TC1 at ws 145, though West runs stagnated at $4–4.1m. LR1s were steady at ws 170–175 eastbound and $3.25m westbound. MRs tightened late in the week, lifting TC17 to ws 237.5 and TC12 to ws 172.5.
UK Continent
Despite early-week activity, rates weakened to TC2 at ws 100. Handies dropped to ws 140 ex-UKC, pressured by MR competition.
Mediterranean
MR rates slipped to ~ws 110 ex-Med after a steady start, while Handies softened sharply from ws 165 to ws 135, driven by thin demand and ample tonnage.
Dirty Product Tankers
Handy
Northern Europe Handies opened firm at ws 240 but softened amid weak enquiry, with further downside expected. In the Med, fixing ranged ws 230–235 early week before enquiry dried up, leaving rates poised to test into the ws 220s.
MR
In the UKC, MRs held steady at ws 165. In the Med, West Med tonnage was tighter, supporting ws 165, while CMed/EMed was softer at ws 160.
Panamax
Rates ticked upward, with TD21 assessed at 50 x ws 150.
Rates & Bunkers
- Spot WS / TCE Highlights (Aug 14 vs Aug 7)
- TD3C VLCC AG-China: ws 56 (-1), TCE $38,750/day (flat).
- TD20 Suezmax WAF-UKC: ws 106 (-15), TCE $44,750/day (-$9,250).
- TD25 Aframax USG-UKC: ws 148 (-3), TCE $35,000/day (-$1,000).
- TC1 LR2 AG-Japan: ws 144 (-9), TCE $34,750/day (-$2,750).
- TC18 MR USG-Brazil: ws 176 (-62), TCE $21,500/day (-$12,000).
- Bunker Prices ($/t, Aug 14 vs Aug 7)
- Rotterdam VLSFO: $467 (-2)
- Fujairah VLSFO: $485 (-11)
- Singapore VLSFO: $493 (-11)
- Rotterdam LSMGO: $643 (-19)
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Source: Gibson
