- OPEC+ supply fears ease as Pacific Basin exports remain weak.
- South America leads gains with exports 9% above seasonal highs.
- Middle East Gulf shipments fall 860kbd m-o-m, below seasonal average.
During the first half of August 2025, global crude and condensate departures remained robust, averaging about 41 million barrels per day, 2% higher than the seasonal average from 2016 to 2024 and surpassing levels seen in both 2023 and 2024. While there were worries that the swift rollback of production cuts by eight key OPEC+ members, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, might lead to an oversupply in the market, that hasn’t happened yet. Exports from the Pacific Basin are still 7% below the seasonal average for early August, which helps mitigate the risk of excess supply, reports Break Wave Advisors.
South America and the Atlantic Basin Fuel Export Growth
The standout performer in August’s export scene is South America, which is 9% above the seasonal high for this month from 2016 to 2024, driven by Brazil and Guyana. The broader Atlantic Basin is also holding strong, with exports on the rise. On the flip side, exports from the Middle East Gulf saw a significant drop of over 860,000 barrels per day month-on-month, landing around 16 million barrels per day, which is 8% below the seasonal average. Given the typical front-loading of shipments, full-month exports are likely to finish slightly lower than in 2023 and 2024.
OPEC+ Keeps Inventory Growth in Check
OPEC+ has managed to keep onshore inventories stable by compensating for previous overproduction and ramping up domestic consumption. As of August 15, stocks were reported to be 4% below the seasonal average, according to the Vortexa Global Inventory Report.
Demand from India has also played a supportive role, with Middle Eastern departures to India increasing by 3% and 5% compared to 2024 and 2023, respectively. However, as domestic demand in OPEC+ starts to wane with summer coming to an end and production expected to rise further in September, there are lingering concerns about how sustainable the current price stability really is. The narrowing backwardation in the Dubai market illustrates these trends, dropping from nearly $3 per barrel at the beginning of August to $2.37 per barrel by mid-month, although it still remains above the first half of 2025 average of $2.104 per barrel (Argus).
Shifts in Regional Exports
South American exports have dipped by about 90,000 barrels per day month-over-month, but they’re still holding strong above seasonal highs. Brazil and Guyana are ramping up production, which is really helping to drive this growth.
On the other hand, West African exports saw an increase of around 230,000 barrels per day month-over-month, although they’re still lagging behind 2024 levels. Meanwhile, US exports bounced back after a significant drop of 500,000 barrels per day between June and July, thanks to Venezuelan shipments coming in after Chevron got its license back, along with Canadian exports recovering from wildfire and maintenance setbacks.
Atlantic Basin Strength Adds Pressure
In the first half of August, Pacific Basin exports dropped by roughly 1.4 million barrels per day month-over-month, staying below the seasonal average. In contrast, Atlantic Basin exports surged by over 290,000 barrels per day month-over-month, running about 8% above the seasonal norm. While early data hints at a bit of a slowdown later in the month, Brazil and Guyana are expected to keep Atlantic exports at those seasonally high levels through August 2025.
Price Impact from Surging Atlantic Supply
The robust Atlantic Basin exports, coupled with softer European demand and autumn refinery maintenance, are starting to put some pressure on prices.
The Brent–Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps (EFS) has plummeted from $3.70 per barrel in late June to just $0.23 per barrel by August 18, 2025 (according to Argus). Benchmark crude prices have also been on a downward trend since their spike in late July.
This narrowing spread might encourage more Atlantic Basin flows toward East of Suez markets, as pricing dynamics are now influencing trade flows.
Did you subscribe to our daily Newsletter?
It’s Free Click here to Subscribe!
Source: Break Wave Advisors
