The commissioning of Nigeria’s 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery is reshaping global gasoline trade dynamics, especially between Europe and West Africa. With Nigeria ramping up domestic fuel production, European refiners long reliant on exports to West Africa are facing falling demand, increasing inventories, and growing risks of refinery closures.
Decline of European Gasoline Exports to West Africa
Historically, West Africa was a major outlet for European gasoline, particularly from the UK and Northwest Europe. However, with Dangote boosting crude intake to over 500,000 b/d and steadily increasing production, Nigerian imports from Europe have halved from one in five barrels last year to just one in ten today.
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European gasoline shipments to West Africa now average 270,000 b/d in 2025, compared to 260,000 b/d in 2024.
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The reduced demand has pushed Rotterdam gasoline inventories up by more than 25% year on year.
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Despite refiners shifting focus to diesel production, European gasoline cracks are struggling, averaging only $9/bl this year, about a third lower than 2024 levels.
Impact on Refinery Operations and Trade Routes
The reduced demand from Nigeria has significantly hit MR tonne-miles, with around 50,000 b/d of MR trade lost this year. This decline comes on top of structural challenges, including refinery closures in Europe:
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Prax’s 105,000 b/d Lindsey refinery shut earlier this year, removing about 50,000 b/d of gasoline output, including 20,000 b/d of high-sulphur grades once destined for West Africa.
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Refineries in the UK, France, and Norway face heightened closure risks due to lost Nigerian demand.
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Some displaced volumes are finding markets in the Mediterranean, with an uptick of about five MR liftings per month compared to 2024.
Nigeria’s Dangote refinery is not only altering regional fuel trade flows but also threatening the survival of several European refiners. With West Africa reducing reliance on European gasoline, refiners are grappling with oversupply, weaker margins, and the potential for further shutdowns.
Going forward, Europe may increasingly redirect its gasoline towards the Mediterranean or cut back production as the global refining map adjusts to this new reality.
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Source: BREAKWAVE ADVISORS
